WNBA Best Bets:
We had a full day of WNBA playoff action on Sunday and were able to cash our only play of the day if you followed me on X @TShoeIndex to get that one. We’re back with a small, two-game slate tonight featuring the Liberty (1-0) vs the Dream and the Aces (1-0) vs the Storm. Here are tonight’s projections from my T Shoe Index, which has produced a 15-4 betting run while going 35-13-1 on all totals in the WNBA in September.
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream
The Dream are lucky to be in the playoffs after an exciting finish for the eighth seed, while New York is here for one reason only: to win a championship after losing to the Aces in last year’s finals. The Liberty are 12.5-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 155.5, while TSI projects NY -12 with a total of 154.5. New York took game one by 14 points, and the teams combined for 152 points. On the season (five games). New York won by an average of 9.4 ppg in this matchup, with an average total of 154.5. Interestingly, in Liberty home games, NY has won two out of three with an overall average margin of victory of 3 points and an average total of just 151. I lean Atlanta here, but TSI is red hot on totals, and all signs point to an Under.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 155.5 (Play to 155)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm
The defending champs took game one by 11 points on Sunday, as Seattle had star forward Ezi Macbegor out with a concussion. She is expected to return Tuesday night, which should bolster the Seattle frontcourt against the three-time MVP, A’ja Wilson. Vegas is currently 8-point favorites (and dropping) with an Over/Under of 159.5. TSI projects Aces -7.5 with a total of 159. These teams played five times this season, with Vegas winning four out of five, including four in a row after dropping the first meeting, but the Aces only won by an overall average margin of 5.5 points per game, with an average total of 157. There’s not much value on the number, but all three games played in Las Vegas have combined for less than the current 159.5-point total. I’d lean Seattle and the Under, but no official play on this one.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Storm +8, Under 159.5
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