WNBA Best Bets:
This time of year is tough, switching gears back and forth from football to basketball and trying to stay on top of the latest team trends and line movement. Thankfully, Labor Day provided a much-needed reprieve to catch my breath and recalibrate all things WNBA after being in football mode Saturday.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
We’re back with a four-game slate on Tuesday, including many of the top teams in the league, so let’s get right to the projections for the action.
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm
Connecticut has suddenly found its offensive rhythm after being a defense-first team for much of the season. They should be scary for anyone who may see them in the playoffs. Seattle is a very capable team that has shown some inconsistency in integrating their new stars throughout this year. Tonight, Connecticut is a 3.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 159.5. TSI projects Sun -4.5 with a total of 162.5. Looking at these teams’ last three games, I’d project the total nearly 10 points higher (!), so I’m going to roll with the hot hand(s) and play an over, in agreement with the market, which has pushed this total up a point already.
Bet: Over 159.5 (Play to 160.5)
Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics
Speaking of inconsistency, holy cow, these two teams have been wildly inconsistent this season, largely due to injuries. Dallas is laying 5 points here with an Over/Under of 172.5. Before I even checked my projection, I thought to myself, “No way I’d lay 5 points with Dallas”, and sure enough, I project Washington -0.5 with a total of 174. Dallas has been a great “Over” team this year but Washington hasn’t consistently shown the offensive chops for me to bet an Over this high with them involved. I do think I’ll take the points here.
WNBA Best Bet: Washington Mystics +5 (Play to +4)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream
I’ve mentioned how much better Atlanta has been lately (almost 2 full points better over its last three games compared to its season-long rating). Phoenix is coming off a big loss to the Aces and has been very up-and-down since the Olympic break; nonetheless, Phoenix is a 1.5-point favorite, and the number seems to be climbing, while the Over/Under is 160.5. TSI projects Mercury -1 with a total of 156. These teams have played three times with an average combined score of 156.5, so I have even more confidence in my projection here. I’m going to play an Under, but the market is going the other way, so be patient and monitor the market before firing to make sure you get the best number.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 160.5 or better
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky
I hate that arguably the most interesting game of the night is at 10 p.m. ET because I’d love to watch this game, but I’m old and need my beauty sleep (not that it’s helping). Vegas is trying to turn things around after some bad losses, including a recent loss to the Wings, while Chicago just got its doors blown off by the white-hot Indiana Fever and Caitlin Clark. The Aces are 12-point favorites with an Over/Under of 164.5. TSI projects Aces -10 (including the presumptive absence of Chennedy Carter) with a total of 164. I just cannot bet on Chicago with Carter not confirmed in the lineup. They’ve been miserable without her, so I’m going to sit this one out.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away
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