WNBA Best Bets:
We’ve hit five of our last seven WNBA best bets, so we’re on a decent little run right now. When I went to bed last night, it sure looked like that number was going to be six out of seven. Then Phoenix apparently forgot how to play defense in the second half and allowed 90 points to the Mystics. Nonetheless, I’m happy with how things are trending, and we’re still up +8 units on the season. Tonight, we have a four-game slate, and what’s odd is that these lines have barely budged since opening yesterday, which is not typical. Usually, when writing this article first thing in the morning, I’ve got a good idea of where the market is going. Today, I truly have no idea – remember, the WNBA market is less efficient, so CLV isn’t as important in this sport, but it’s still nice to have in conjunction with my TSI projections.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Here are tonight’s projections:
Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces
The Aces have started to trend back the right way after going through a major slump a couple of weeks ago. That explains why they’ve moved from a 1-point favorite to a 2.5-point favorite against the Sun tonight. The Sun have remained pretty steady, with their last five games rating being basically identical to their season-long rating. Interestingly, their offensive rating has increased since acquiring Marina Mabrey and their defensive rating has dropped, but in a net-zero change. This has caused some inflation in this 165-point Over/Under, as TSI projects the Sun -3.5 with a total of 160.5. I think both defenses are good enough to make this more of a playoff atmosphere and a physical game more so than a track meet.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 165 (Play to 164)
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx
No one in the league is hotter than the Indiana Fever right now. Caitlin Clark is fresh off of another triple-double and they are gearing up for her first playoff run. The Lynx have been fantastic most of the season, but they have been a little more mortal lately. Their rating has dropped a full point over their last five games. Despite the trajectory of these teams over recent games, the market is buying Minnesota, driving them from -1 to -3 with an Over/Under of 169.5. TSI projects this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 167.5. I will likely end up on Indiana and the Under, but I’m waiting to get the best number on those plays.
WNBA Best Bet: Strong leans for now on Fever +3 and Under 169.5
Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings
I often roll my eyes when I hear bettors say, “I’m betting this team Over no matter what!” However, it kind of feels at this point like Dallas is almost an automatic Over bet (per TSI) due to their flame-throwing offensive stretches and turnstile defense. They are 2.5-point road dogs at Atlanta with an Over/Under of 166.5 at most books. TSI projects Atlanta as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 168.5. Full disclosure: FanDuel has this total at 166, and that’s what I’m firing on. I will likely end up betting Atlanta once I get a feel for what the market will do.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 166 (Play to 166.5), Later bet on Atlanta -3 or better
Chicago Sky vs. Los Angeles Sparks
The big question for Chicago is when they can get Chennedy Carter back in the lineup after being out for health and safety protocols. Without her, the Sky’s power rating is 1.5 points worse over the last five games. The Sparks are bad, and they have remained bad since seeing Cameron Brink go down for the season in June – not that they were great with her. Chicago is a 5-point favorite in this game with an Over/Under of 163-163.5, depending on where you look. TSI projects Chicago -5 with a total of 162.5. There are some stray books that have 164 out there, so if you have access to one of those, I like the Under, but in fairness to the majority of the audience, I will not make it an official play because of the consensus number.
WNBA Best Bet: Strong lean Under 163.5
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