WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, August 8
Connecticut Sun -7 at Seattle Storm, 159.5
12:00 p.m. PT/3:00 p.m. ET
Connecticut (20-7 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) most recently played on August 4th in Indiana, won 88-72, and covered as eight-point favorites. Seattle (7-20 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) just beat Phoenix by six and covered as four-point road dogs.
These teams already played each other twice this year, and Connecticut won both times. They last played July 6th which was a game the Sun won 93-73 and covered as 10.5-point favorites. Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas did her damage in the paint, which was facilitated by the fact that the Storm’s defense allows the second most points in the paint (per 100 possessions) in the league. Six Sun players scored in double digits in that win. Outside of a loss to the Lynx, the Sun have won five of their last six games and covered four.
As for the home team, Seattle has managed to cover four of their last five games and has cashed four Unders in that same stretch. That five-game span also featured four road games against four different teams. Jewell Loyd has continued to hold it down, scoring 32, 31, and 26 points in her last three games, and 22 points the last time she played the Sun on July 6th.
Both games versus the Sun this season went over, and although Connecticut’s offense can be inconsistent at times, I suspect we will see another fast-paced game between these two teams. The Sun can cover again, having gone 9-4 ATS on the road this season.
Over 159.5
Connecticut Sun -7
Los Angeles Sparks at Indiana Fever -1, 158.5
4:00 p.m. PT/7:00 p.m. ET
Los Angeles (10-18 SU, 12-14-2 ATS) has only won two of their last five games, but they covered all five. Indiana (7-21 SU, 12-14-2 ATS) has now failed to cover five straight games. They last played Indiana on July 25th and 27th and Los Angeles won both games but covered in only the most recent matchup.
The Fever have only won one of their last seven games and have logged six straight Unders. However, NaLyssa Smith has been upgraded to questionable after missing nearly a month and could be available for this game. If she is playing, things should start to turn around for the Fever, but I would still give the edge to the Sparks in this matchup.
The Sparks were decimated by injuries early and often, but nevertheless were able to go 5-2 SU against the seven-win teams this season (Fever, Storm, Mercury.) Basically, in games that are winnable against lesser opponents, the Sparks can be effective.
Also of note, the Sparks suffered an overnight delay in DC on their way to Indiana, almost exactly a year after an overnight delay last season left them stranded in the airport. They did have Monday to get right before this Tuesday game, but nevertheless, the delay could factor into the Sparks’ performance.
Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace. The Sparks are dead last in effective field goal percentage, and the Fever haven’t scored more than 73 points in their last five games. Again, Smith’s return could impact both the side and total so feel free to wait and see if she is going to play before placing any bets as you may get the Sparks moneyline at a better number.
Los Angeles Sparks ML -105
Under 158.5
Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky -3.5, 165.5
5:00 p.m. PT/8:00 p.m. ET
The Lynx (13-15 SU, 15-12-1 ATS) have covered the spread more often than not this season, in fact, there was a 14-game stretch where they covered 11 times. Most recently, they covered four of their last five games, but they are coming off a loss to the Liberty in which they failed to cover as nine-point dogs. Considering this will be Minnesota’s fourth road game in their last five games, it isn’t surprising their offensive output dwindled over their last two games (plus they played some very savvy defenses).
Meanwhile, Chicago (12-15 SU, 15-10-2 ATS) has the top offensive rating in the league over their last six games and sit at fourth in pace. They have covered and won three straight including two wins in Dallas and scored 104 points in three straight games. Not to mention, Chicago has the third-best three-point percentage in the league and is facing a Lynx team that struggles to defend the perimeter.
Chicago Sky -3.5
Las Vegas Aces -9 at Dallas Wings, 176
5:00 p.m. PT/8:00 p.m.ET
In New York on Sunday, the Aces (24-3 SU, 15-12 ATS) lost to the Liberty by 38 points, 99-61.
Later on, the Wings (15-13 SU, 13-14-1 ATS) lost their second straight game to the Sky, allowing them to score 104 points in both games. Aces’ A’ja Wilson had a particularly off night after Jonquel Jones swung her elbow into Wilson’s neck, resulting in a Flagrant 1 call for Jones. Wilson finished the night with nine points on 2-of-14 shooting. Meanwhile, Wings’ Arike Ogunbowale was ejected from the game for “making contact with a referee.” Why don’t we all go look up the clip and see if we agree? I’ll wait. Terrible call right? Needless to say, both teams should be fired up and motivated to right the wrongs of their last games.
The last time they played on July 30th in Las Vegas, the Wings lost and failed to cover as 11-point underdogs, 104-91. Before that, the Wings won the matchup in Dallas on July 7th, 80-78. Clearly, the Wings have shown they can hang with the size and fast-paced offense of the Aces and have demonstrated how valuable their offensive rebounding can be in these matchups. With Candace Parker out, the Aces have slid defensively which the Liberty win in particular exposed. These two up-tempo teams can both score, so we should be in for a very high-scoring affair. I think you could get a better in-game number on Dallas if the Aces open up with a barrage of scoring, and if you see double-digits, I’d be in on that.
Lean Over 176
Lean Dallas Wings +9
Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury -2.5, 157
7:00 p.m. PT/10:00 p.m. ET
For weeks, Washington (13-14 SU, 12-15 ATS) has been eagerly awaiting the return of several key players, and the good news is all of their missing players traveled on this trip. Elena Delle Donne was officially upgraded to doubtful and seems to be closest to returning, while Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin, and Kristi Toliver have started to practice in a limited capacity.
The last time these teams played on July 23rd, the Mystics won 84-69 and covered as 3.5-point home dogs. Diana Taurasi did not play in the game, and the Mystics were able to use their physicality to get to the line and limit Brittney Griner to 12 points.
This time, the Mercury (7-20 SU, 10-17 ATS) will be without Shey Peddy who was carted off the court on a stretcher in the first half of Saturday’s game and transported to a nearby hospital with a head injury. The team announced that all the tests were negative and Peddy is now recovering from the concussion. In the meantime, the Mercury signed guard Destanni Henderson to a seven-day contract. With so many moving pieces in this matchup, I’d lean towards an under and would opt to live bet this game based on how the teams look in the first half.
