WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, July 11
Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics -6.5, 158
These teams have played twice already this year on June 9th and 11th, both times in Seattle. Washington (10-8 SU, 8-10 ATS) won both games, 73-66 then 71-65. Seattle’s star, Jewell Loyd, missed the June 9th game, but the Storm still covered, and this time they should have her back after she left last Saturday’s game in the fourth quarter with an ankle sprain. As for the Mystics, they have injuries of their own to worry about. Shakira Austin is still out (hip), and Natasha Cloud missed Sunday’s game due to her ankle but is listed as probable for this game. Elena Delle Donne also aggravated her ankle injury in Sunday’s loss and is expected to miss at least two weeks.
The Mystics are ranked second in defensive rating this season and have cashed 11 Unders in their 18 games so far. However, in their last six games, they are ranked second to last in defensive rating, have hit five Overs in that same span, and have had all six games going Over 158. The who’s in and who’s out of the last few games has certainly seemed to affect their consistency on defense. As for the offense, even with Elena Delle Donne scoring zero points in Sunday’s game, the Mystics were still able to score 84 against a solid Connecticut defense.
The Storm (4-14 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) rank fourth in pace which also helps an Over, although they are also last in offensive rating. Nevertheless, I can get down on an Over here, especially with Jewell Loyd in play. The total has been dropping since it opened, so this may go against the grain, but it does allow the opportunity to get an even lower number for this Over bet.
Over 158
Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces -17.5, 169.5
The Aces (17-2 SU, 10-9 ATS) were on the road for their last two games, one of which included a two-point loss in Dallas, which is only their second loss of the season. You can bet they haven’t forgotten about it. The last time the Aces played the Mercury was on June 21st. The Mercury (4-14 SU, 6-12 ATS) lost by 20, 99-79 in Phoenix. This time around, Candace Parker will be out for Las Vegas which should open things up even more for Brittney Griner who didn’t play in the June 21st matchup.
This will be a short trip for the Mercury, but they are only 2-7 ATS on the road. Ultimately, this is a four-win team versus a 17-win team, the best versus the bottom. The Aces should be able to cover this, but on the off chance there is a backdoor cover situation, I won’t be in on the side.
As for the total, Las Vegas has hit 11 Overs this season. The Aces are ranked first in offensive rating, while the Mercury are second to last in defensive rating. Although, since the Mercury changed head coaches six games ago, they have ranked third defensively. They still turn the ball over the most in the league and could struggle to score. It will be live action or nothing for me on this one.
