It’s a bit of a down week in the WNBA with no games on Monday or Wednesday, and just the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship Tuesday night. I’ve got you covered with a projection and thoughts on this matchup between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx. I hate to get a miniature break from WNBA best bets because we had a bit of a hot streak, going 9-4 in our last 13 plays. Nonetheless, let’s see if there are any angles worth betting on in this Tuesday night’s Commissioner’s Cup Championship between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx.
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New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
While Minnesota has spent much of the last few weeks atop the TSI ratings, the Liberty have hit another gear and now sit at #1 in my ratings, while Minnesota is now #3, barely behind the defending champion Aces. The Liberty are 5-point favorites at home with an Over/Under of 162.5.
If you were following me on X Sunday, you know I put out a best bet immediately on the opener at a few recreational books of Over 157.5, which is long gone now. TSI projects the Liberty -5.5 with a total of 162, so at this point, there’s no value on the side or the total.
The interesting thing about this game is that it features four of the top six players in the league from a point spread value perspective, according to my numbers. Breanna Stewart (4.4), Napheesa Collier (4.4), Kayla McBride (4) and Jonquel Jones (3.9) are all among the most valuable players in the league to their teams. I’m extremely intrigued to see how Napheesa Collier plays, given the variety of size and athleticism that New York can throw at her down low. Meanwhile, the flame-throwing guard matchup of Kayla McBride and Sabrina Ionescu should be fascinating as well.
With the line being right where my projection is, I don’t have a strong play pregame, but the great thing about basketball is that it’s a game of runs, which generally means you can grab some value on the live line at some point. From a side perspective, if the Liberty jump out early and I can grab the Lynx plus double digits, I will be all over it, because looking at these teams’ last three games, I would make the spread Liberty -1.5. Another trend I’ve noticed in the W is being able to get Unders at 175+ early in the game has been profitable, as just 15 games this season have ended with a total of 175 or higher.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away pregame. Look for live Lynx and Under opportunities
Updated TSI Ratings:
| Team | TSI Rating |
| New York Liberty | 11.1 |
| Las Vegas Aces | 7.9 |
| Minnesota Lynx | 7.6 |
| Connecticut Sun | 6.2 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 3.6 |
| Seattle Storm | 1.7 |
| Indiana Fever | 0.5 |
| Washington Mystics | -0.1 |
| Chicago Sky | -1.7 |
| Atlanta Dream | -6.3 |
| Los Angeles Sparks | -7.9 |
| Dallas Wings | -10.1 |
For all of my prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get the real time updates from me on all things WNBA.
