We are back! After a +26 unit season last WNBA season, it’s finally time to cash some tickets on some ladies’ hoops again in 2024. Tonight, we have four games on the slate, featuring Caitlin Clark’s Indiana Fever taking on Alyssa Thomas and the Connecticut Sun, A’Ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces taking on Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and the Phoenix Mercury (who I have out a season win total bet on), Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx vs Jewell Lloyd and the Seattle Storm, and Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty facing off against the Elena Delle Donne-less Washington Mystics.
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Here is how my T Shoe Index sees these games playing out:
Indiana Fever vs Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is a 6.5 point favorite in this matchup, with the Over/Under set at 167.5 after opening at 170.5. The Sun already announced this is a sellout game and the world is waiting to see Caitlin Clark’s regular season debut. Connecticut finished the season rated 3rd in TSI last season, and projects them as a 3.5-point favorite here, with a total of 159.5. The Fever ended last season near the bottom in TSI, but Clark’s 4.5-point increase to their power rating plants them firmly in the middle of the league, for now. I don’t love betting a number that’s moved 3 points, but given the value shown here I’m still going to pull the trigger.
Bet: Under 167.5
Lean: Fever +6.5
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury
I’m on record saying I think the market has overreacted to Phoenix’s addition of Kahleah Copper, and their season win total supports that. However, Vegas is without Chelsea Gray tonight and the Aces are 15.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 168.5. TSI projects Vegas as 17-point favorites with a total of 169, so these line moves have put this game more in line with TSI.
Lean: Aces -15.5
Minnesota Lynx vs Seattle Storm
Another team that the market seems to be higher on than TSI is the Seattle Storm. We see that here again tonight, as Seattle is 8.5 (down from 10.5) point favorites over the Lynx with an Over/Under of 164.5. TSI projects this game with the Storm as just 4.5-point favorites and a total at 159.5, showing good value on both the Lynx and the Under.
Bet: Lynx +8.5
Lean: Under 164.5
New York Liberty vs Washington Mystics
This game is an example of a line move I just really don’t understand. New York opened as 13.5-point favorites before being bet down to 10.5, with the total falling from 166 to 163.5. TSI projects the Liberty as 15-point favorites with a total of 163. The Liberty were clearly the second best team last season and return virtually everyone, while the Mystics were a middle-tier team who lost their starting point guard and best player in Natasha Cloud and Elena Delle Donne. I think this market move is wrong and I’m going to capitalize on the 3 points of line value already created on New York.
Bet: Liberty -10.5
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