WNBA Championship
The 2025 WNBA season officially tips off on Friday, so today I wanted to get a final preseason look at the championship futures market to see which teams may present some value if you’re looking to add to your futures portfolio that we built up with some season win totals last week (Part 1 | Part 2).
Unsurprisingly and deservedly so, the defending champion Liberty have the shortest odds at +230 to win the championship this season. But is that a good bet? Let’s examine the field before I answer that.
Current odds at DraftKings:
- New York Liberty +230
- Las Vegas Aces +350
- Indiana Fever +350
- Minnesota Lynx +380
- Everyone else is +1800 or worse
In a sport like the WNBA where parity doesn’t really exist, and the “haves” lay waste to the “have nots”, it would be disingenuous to recommend any of the teams listed at +1800 or worse as a good bet unless you have a crystal ball that one of them is going to pull of a miraculous blockbuster deal for a superstar(s) to bolster their team. As it stands, we’ll focus on the top four, who are realistically the only ones who can win the WNBA Championship, in my opinion.
New York Liberty +230
Can New York repeat? Of course. They have a plethora of talent and size and a variety of complementary skill sets. Last year, though, they had something that they don’t this year – and I don’t just mean play-making machine Courtney Vandersloot – revenge on their minds. Last year, they had the benefit of playing hungry after a finals loss to the Aces the previous year. Now, they’re “fat and happy” as we say, so I’d be a little wary of betting such a short number on them considering that fact and the fact the Aces and Fever made significant moves to improve (or at the very least, shake things up, in the case of the Aces).
Advice: Pass
Las Vegas Aces +350
I understand why Las Vegas has the second-best odds in the market; they’re a sexy name, they have the best player in the game, and they made a splashy deal for Jewell Lloyd in the offseason. However, TSI only has them power-rated fourth heading into the season, so buying them now doesn’t seem like the best time to get involved. Not to mention, we bet their season win total under last week, so TSI is insinuating that they could hit a (relative) rough patch, and thus would likely create a better buy spot for a championship future.
Advice: Hold off for now and buy later
Indiana Fever +350
What about Indiana? Last year, they were a fun story and had all the eyeballs because of Caitlin Clark. This year, it’s different. There are real expectations in Indianapolis and rightfully so. The Fever wasted no time getting rid of Kristy Sides as head coach and brought in a plethora of reinforcements for Clark, including Dewanna Bonner and Sophie Cunningham. Not to mention microwave scorer Kelsey Mitchell is back. I think Indiana is for real and I would not mind a nibble at +350, which indicates about a 22% implied probability to win the title.
Lean: Buy Now
Minnesota Lynx +380
Minnesota is a really likeable team from a basketball purist standpoint. They defend, they play hard every game, and they made the WNBA Finals despite not having the most talented team in the league. There’s a lot to like. They were #1 in TSI for stretches last year and enter this season #2 behind only the Liberty, I just don’t know if I can get all the way there with them. They proved me and a lot of people wrong last year, so I’m prepared to eat my words, but I just think they’re a very good team who probably reached their ceiling with the talent that they have, while other contenders got better.
Advice: Pass for now
Follow Tyler on X, @TShoeIndex, for more WNBA betting insights.
