WNBA Championship Odds Analysis from the T Shoe Index

WNBA Championship Odds Analysis from the T Shoe Index

As we head into the All-Star break next week, I thought it would be a good time to re-evaluate the championship futures market and see what jumps out, based on current TSI ratings and projections. DraftKings still posts the defending champion New York Liberty as the favorite with +150 odds, with Minnesota Lynx right behind them at +250, the Indiana Fever at +500, Phoenix Mercury at +90, and everyone else at 10/1 or better. But where is there potential to set ourselves up nicely once September rolls around? 

Based on the current ratings – which of course take into account how a team is playing in its recent games more heavily, so a team like the Liberty are being represented for their current, injury-bitten form – the Lynx are the highest-rated team in the W. That’s not terribly surprising, but what might be is that the next two teams are Atlanta and Seattle, both of whom have +2500 odds or longer to win the title. Now, I’m not saying they’re going to, but I’m saying that based on the numbers, they are a great value at the current prices. Both are projected to win 28 games this season, according to the updated TSI projections. 

The interesting angle here is that Seattle actually has a higher rating on the road than at home this season, so I wouldn’t hesitate to back them in a series that they wouldn’t have home court – against perhaps a banged up Liberty team or even taking a shot at Minnesota, who just lost in embarrassing fashion to the Fever without Caitlin Clark in the Commissioner’s Cup championship. Both New York and Minnesota have been 3.5 points better at home this season, so keep that in mind, should they end up slipping out of home-court advantage in a series.

I think Phoenix is an interesting team with their collection of talent that is finally healthy and in the lineup at the same time, so I could see them making a run, but I’m still weary of Alyssa Thomas’s limitations as a shooter beyond 10 feet and how defenses can pack the paint against them, as we saw in Connecticut’s runs in years past. 

Best Futures Bet: Seattle Storm +2500

Updated T Shoe Index Power Ratings (neutral court)

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