WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Picks
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx (-6.5), O/U 165
Tonight, $500,000 is on the line in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup championship game, with the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Indiana Fever. The Commissioner’s Cup is the WNBA’s in-season tournament that incentivizes teams to compete in designated games by offering a $500,000 reward and other considerations to the winning team. It feels a little bit like the Indiana Fever have been playing Minesweeper to get here, as they’ve been very inconsistent but happened to win the right games at the right times to make the championship. Both teams have seen their stars – Caitlin Clark and Napheesa Collier, the two All-Star captains – miss multiple games with injuries, but Minnesota has proven to handle that better (and less often) than Indiana.
The Lynx are 14-2 while the Fever are just 8-8. Minnesota opened this game as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 167, but the market has increased the price to back the Lynx to -6.5 and the total has dropped to 165. My T Shoe Index projects Lynx at -7 with a total of 159.5, with the highest formula barely reaching the current 165. Caitlin Clark is technically questionable for this game, though I have a strong feeling she’ll play, and when that announcement comes, you’ll likely see some money come back on the Fever, at which point I’d want to get involved in backing the Lynx. Indiana has been about eight points better with Clark in the lineup than without, per my TSI game grades. For now, I’d lean Under with hopes of grabbing a Minnesota -4.5 or so after the Clark news.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 165
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