WNBA MVP
We’re two days away from the start of the 2025 WNBA season, and so far we’ve added some win total bets to our portfolio (Part 1 | Part 2), evaluated the WNBA Championship futures market, and today we will examine the WNBA MVP odds to see if there are any players worth considering placing a bet on as the preseason winds down and the real action ramps up.
The current betting market indicates it’s really a three-horse race for MVP between Caitlin Clark, A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier, so we’ll focus on those three for now and revisit later in the season if anyone else – cough cough Paige Bueckers – enters the chat.
Caitlin Clark +200
Caitlin Clark is unsurprisingly the current preseason favorite to win MVP at +200 in just her second WNBA season. She’s a fan favorite, had a splashy rookie season after a legendary college career, and is on a team with real title aspirations in 2025, so all the ingredients are there for these odds to make sense.
I am interested to see where Clark’s season takes her and the Fever, because the first half of the season last year, she was actually only worth about 1.5 points to the spread, per TSI player ratings. She built momentum for 2025 in the back half of the season, and I’d say that number shot up to around 4 points of (estimated) value.
Look, I can’t fault you if you take a 2/1 flyer on her right now, but knowing that this number is probably inflated relative to the actual probability of her winning it, I just can’t quite say “bet it!” with authority. There could be some potential value if it takes Indiana a few weeks or more to gel with the new pieces, and if they lose a couple of early games, that could be the time to pounce.
Advice: Pass for now
A’ja Wilson +230
With 3 WNBA MVP trophies already on her mantle, is Wilson primed for another one in 2025? She’s the best player in the league (sorry, Caitlin) and her team has a renewed jolt of energy after getting humbled in last year’s playoffs and then acquiring professional bucket-getter, Jewell Lloyd, in the offseason. She’s the biggest mismatch in the league with her combination of size and skill, and her team will undoubtedly be in the title hunt. Those are ingredients for an MVP.
My hesitation with Wilson would be that the addition of Lloyd takes away from Wilson statistically, which could help the team’s success but hurt Wilson’s MVP campaign. I don’t think +230 is worth betting right now.
Advice: Pass for now
Napheesa Collier +300
To me, this is the most intriguing candidate for an MVP bet. She’s listed at 3/1 odds and plays for a team that will certainly win a ton of regular season games and be in the title hunt in September. She’s the Defensive Player of the Year and averages 20 points per game, but plays in a small market in Minnesota and doesn’t quite get the highlight reel treatment that Clark and Wilson do.
A weird but worthy note that I think should be considered is that she is the co-founder of the Unrivaled league, which paid its players well beyond their WNBA salaries on average, which helps her brand credibility and name recognition, so I think that will ultimately be a boost in terms of her popularity this time around. I think of the three main candidates, this is where my sprinkle would go for a bet.
Advice: Bet at +300
Longshot pick: Paige Bueckers +9500
Paige is coming off a dominant national championship run with the UConn Huskies and was the #1 pick in last month’s WNBA draft. She’s coming into a situation where Dallas was a defensive turnstile last season, but does return Arike Ogunbowale, who can score in bunches, which gives Paige’s passing prowess a primary target.
Keep in mind, we did bet their season win total Under, but if Paige comes in and changes the culture from Day 1 and turns around this Wings organization, that +9500 price tag for this ticket could be worth a few bucks.
Other notable odds:
Breanna Stewart +1400
Sabrina Ionescu +2000
Kelsey Plum +7500
Angel Reese +8000
Brittney Griner +10000
Cameron Brink +15000
Follow Tyler on X, @TShoeIndex, for more WNBA betting insights.
