WNBA Picks
It seems like we have blinked and gone from WNBA preseason win totals to August 1st and the home stretch of the season. For goodness’ sake, we’re going to have regular-season college football games this month! We’ve got five games in the W tonight, so no time to waste.
Here are the T Shoe Index projections for August 1st:
Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever (-4.5), O/U 174.5
Holy line movement! Even without Caitlin Clark in the lineup for Indiana, this O/U has skyrocketed from 167.5 to 174.5, while Indiana has moved from a 2.5-point favorite to -4.5. Dallas has been playing much better lately, mainly since Dijonai Carrington returned from injury and Paige Bueckers became more comfortable in her rookie season. TSI projects Indiana -12 here, primarily due to Dallas’s dreadful rating at home, where they’ve been 20 (!!) points worse in opponent-adjusted ratings this season, having gone 5-9 at home and losing by an average of 11.5 points in those losses. I’m going to lay it with the Fever here.
WNBA Pick: Indiana Fever -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty (-11.5), O/U 171
Breanna Stewart was announced to have a bone bruise in her knee, which will keep her out indefinitely. Despite this, we’ve seen the Liberty move from -9 to -11.5 and the total go from 164.5 to 171. TSI projects Liberty -9 with a total of 174, so the move towards the over is justified, but it’s hard to bet the Over after so much movement already. The Liberty are giving up over 90 points per game in their last five, and give up an average of 87 points per game on the road this season. I’d want to be involved with the Over, but perhaps hope for a slow start and grab it live in the 160s would be the hope here. As it stands, I’m just going to lean Over.
WNBA Pick: Over 171
Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury (-3.5), O/U 167.5
This line opened Phoenix -1 before being driven to -3.5, while the total has followed the earlier games and climbed from 161.5 to 167.5, which makes sense given TSI projects Mercury -1.5 with a total of 166. Phoenix has not played well recently, despite getting its star duo of Kahlea Copper and Satou Sabally back in the lineup; they’ve been outscored by an average of five points per game over their last five, going just 1-4 ATS, while Atlanta is 3-2 ATS in its last five. Phoenix has been about eight points worse on the road this season as well, so I think this is a good spot to back Atlanta.
WNBA Pick: Atlanta Dream +3.5 (Play to +2.5)
Seattle Storm (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 168.5
This game hasn’t seen near the movement that the others have, but LA has gone from +5.5 to +4.5. The total has jumped from 166.5 to 168.5. TSI projects Storm -2.5 with a total of 168, so there is good value on LA still, plus the fact that Cameron Brink’s minutes should be gradually ramping up now that she’s back and active. You already know the deal with LA on the road; they’re 13 points better on the road than at home this season and have been printing money for us in these road games, so no sense in not going back to the well here.
WNBA Pick: Sparks +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
Chicago Sky vs. Golden State Valkyries (-6), O/U 154
Golden State has been another cash cow for us, again coming through last night in an outright win as underdogs against the Mystics. They’re taking on the Chicago Sky and Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins will again miss for Chicago. The Sky have been awful without those two in the lineup, but TSI projects Golden State -4 with a total of 158. I would not want to touch an Over with Chicago if those players aren’t in the lineup, as they’ve only averaged 67 points over the last five games. I’m going to stay all the way away from this game with the Valkyries being on a back-to-back. There are numerous complicating factors to this handicap.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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