WNBA Picks
Saturday night’s results were just the latest edition of “WTF is going on in the WNBA,” as the Sparks failed to even score 60 points on the Valkyries and the Fever—without 3 rotational guards and Lexie Hull getting injured mid-game—won by 22. Sunday, we’ve got five games on deck, starting with the Liberty and Lynx at 12:30 p.m. ET in what should’ve been appointment viewing. However, Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier both being out takes some luster off the matchup.
Here are today’s TSI projections for all five games:
New York Liberty (-4) vs. Minnesota Lynx, O/U 167.5
The market is loving New York in this game, driving the line from -1.5 to -4, while the total has increased a point since opening. TSI projects New York -1 with a total of 171.5. Minnesota is 7-2-1 to the Over in their last 10 games, and 9-5 to the Over on the road. These teams played once this season and combined for 193 points, albeit with more healthy rosters at the time. I’m still going to play the Over here.
WNBA Pick: Over 167.5 (Play to 168.5)
Dallas Wings (-3.5) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 161.5
The total on this game has dropped four points already, and the spread has moved from Dallas -1.5 to -3.5, while TSI projects Mystics -1 with a total of 169.5; though, keep in mind that Washington is dealing with breaking in a new rotation after multiple trades this week, and Dallas has had Paige Bueckers in and out of the lineup, so there’s lots of muddy data here so this will be a pass for me.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Dream, O/U 165.5
Both Rhyne Howard and Brittney Griner are questionable for Atlanta today after missing multiple games each. The line has moved from Phoenix -4.5 to -3.5 and the total has increased a point since opening, while TSI projects a pick ‘em with a total of 166.5. Atlanta has been 7 points better on the road this season, and they’ve been 2 points better than the Mercury over their last 5 games, so I’m going to take the Dream and the points here.
WNBA Pick: Atlanta Dream +3.5 (Play to +2.5)
LA Sparks vs. Seattle Storm (-4.5), O/U 172.5
LA finally disappointed us with a stinker on the road against Golden State last night; now, they’re on a back-to-back against Seattle, where the line has moved a point towards Seattle and two points towards the Over. TSI projects Storm -6.5 with a total of 171, so there’s not a ton of value to be had here, but I would lean Seattle here if I had to make a play, since LA has been dreadful at home and is on a back-to-back.
WNBA Pick: Lean Seattle Storm -4.5
Las Vegas Aces (-12) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 167.5
Is it just me or do these teams play like every other week? They’ve actually only played three times this year, but I feel like I write up this matchup all the time. Anyway, Vegas has won all three matchups by an average margin of 23, with an average total of 149. The line for this game has moved 1.5 points towards Connecticut and the total has remained flat, while TSI projects Aces -8.5 with a total of 168.5. Averaging out the head-to-head results with the official projections gets you to Aces -16, so I’m going to pass here with the conflicting numbers.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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