WNBA Picks
Four games on the slate for tonight in the WNBA, and the Connecticut Sun are actually favored in one of those! Washington hosts Golden State in a game with what I believe to be the lowest O/U of the season, the Aces host the Liberty, who are on a back-to-back, and Seattle plays host to Atlanta (note: an Atlanta win will cash our Over 20.5 wins on the season).
Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Connecticut Sun (-2.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 158
This is not a misprint. The Connecticut Sun are actually favored over another adult basketball team. You have to think this is rock bottom for Chicago, even if they are on the road. The line has actually moved a half point towards Connecticut, and the total has inched up by a half point as well. TSI projects Sky -2 with a total of 163, but Chicago is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as they nosedived after Angel Reese’s injury, not that they were piling up wins beforehand. I’d like to lean Over here, but Chicago has gone Over just twice in their last 10, so the market – and TSI – are having a hard time adjusting to how bad they are.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Washington Mystics (-1.5) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 148.5
I think this is the lowest total of the season, which is crazy to think about considering Washington scores and allows about 79 points per game at home. However, Golden State has a way of slowing the game down and making it a rock fight. No movement on the spread so far, and the total has dropped three points, while TSI projects a pick ‘em with a total of 152. Again, the Valkyries are just 2-8 to the Over in their last 10 games, and these teams are a combined 18-13 to the Under in their respective home/road roles. These teams have played twice, with Golden State winning both by a combined 3 points and an average combined total of 142.5. I’d lean Valkyries here, but it’s too close to officially play.
WNBA Pick: Lean Golden State Valkyries +1.5
Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) vs. New York Liberty, O/U 170.5
As I mentioned, New York is on a back-to-back after playing LA last night and combining for 202 points in that game, so fatigue looks to be a major factor in this game. The line has already moved 1.5 points towards Vegas, and the total has ticked up a point from 169.5 to 170.5, while TSI projects Liberty -1 with a total of 178.5. Here’s what scares me with that projection: Vegas has definitely been playing better than the Liberty lately, and although the data suggests an Over, the fatigue factor is concerning on the New York side of things. I think I feel more comfortable betting against the Liberty defense than I do betting against the Aces in this game.
WNBA Pick: Lean Over 170.5
Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream (-1), O/U 161
Atlanta can cash our season win total Over bet tonight with a win, so obviously I’m rooting for that. Seattle has been awful lately, losing five in a row and making me look like a big dummy for suggesting they could be contenders in the playoffs with the top teams dealing with injuries. Atlanta has turned it on lately, winning 5 in a row and going 5-0 ATS in the process. The last five games’ worth of data would make Atlanta an 11-point favorite, and the official TSI projection is Atlanta -4.5 with a total of 164. Give me the Dream on the road here.
WNBA Pick: Atlanta Dream -1 (play to -3)
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