WNBA Picks
I don’t know about you, but yesterday evening, with no WNBA to bet before football starts, was a pretty boring experience for me. Thankfully, we’re back with a five-piece tonight in the W, as the regular season winds down and playoff seeding and getting healthy become the focus. Here are the projections from the T Shoe Index for Friday night’s games:
Chicago Sky vs. Golden State Valkyries (-6.5), O/U 149.5
Chicago is essentially running on fumes right now and is probably just ready to get the season over with so that they can land another top prospect in the draft and hope to be a competent basketball team next year. Golden State is still battling for playoff seeding in their inaugural season, so I’d say the motivational factor definitely benefits the Valkyries here. The line has moved from -5 to -6.5, and the total has dropped from 154.5 to 149.5. TSI projects Golden State -9.5 with a total of 154, so I’m all over the Valkyries here. Not to mention, Chicago is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 while Golden State is 7-3.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
Indiana Fever (-8.5) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 161.5
Indiana looked to have things figured out with Caitlin Clark missing for an extended time this season, but they’re just 2-3 in their last five and also 2-3 ATS in that span. Washington is also struggling, going just 1-4 in their last five with a 2-3 ATS record as well. The line moved a point towards the Mystics, and the total remained the same as the opening 161.5, while TSI projects Indiana -5 with a total of 170.5. To be totally honest, totals have been insanely unpredictable the past few weeks, so tread lightly on that Over, but I do like the Mystics plus the points here, as the last five games’ worth of data would favor Indiana by just 1, per TSI.
WNBA Pick: Washington Mystics +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
Dallas Wings vs. LA Sparks (-4.5), O/U 177.5
This total opened at a whopping 179.5 but has been bet down a few points, while the spread has moved two points toward LA here. The Sparks recently got star forward Cameron Brink back, and she’s already racking up the blocks as a dominant rim protector for LA. Dallas has been awful most of the year. Arike Ogunbowale has been in and out of the lineup with an injury lately, although she hasn’t played particularly well when she’s been in. This matchup is one of the biggest discrepancies in home/road performance you’ll see in the W; Dallas has been 20 points worse at home and LA has been almost 20 points better on the road (per opponent-adjusted TSI game grades), so I think it’s possible LA wins this game comfortably in Dallas, as TSI projects LA -8.5 with a total of 180.
WNBA Pick: LA Sparks -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
Phoenix Mercury (-4.5) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 168.5
The line has moved a point toward Phoenix here, while the total has climbed two points after opening 166.5; although I don’t think there’s any question which team is playing better basketball right now: Vegas. They’re 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while Phoenix is 3-2 straight up and ATS, including two wins over Connecticut and Chicago. TSI projects Phoenix -2.5 with a total of 168.5, but over the last five games, this would essentially be a pick ‘em, so I’m going to take Vegas and the points.
WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
Atlanta Dream (-3) vs. Seattle Storm, O/U 161
In a rematch of a winning bet for us earlier this week (Atlanta -1), the Dream will now host Seattle, and the line has moved a point toward the Dream and nudged a half point down on the total. TSI projects Dream -5 with a total of 165, but given the opposite directions these teams are trending lately, TSI indicates the last five games’ worth of data shows Atlanta has been 18 points better, including a double-digit win at Seattle this week. Seattle has lost five straight and is 0-5 ATS in that span. This is all Dream for me.
WNBA Pick: Atlanta Dream -3 (Play to -4)
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