WNBA Picks
There was just a solo game yesterday, in which the New York Liberty fell yet again to the Minnesota Lynx, who played without Napheesa Collier. I’ve got to say, I’m feeling pretty good about the longshot bets I gave out at the beginning of the season for both the Lynx to win the title and Collier to win MVP (wonder what we could’ve parlayed those for?). Anyway, we have a loaded slate in the W today beginning at 1 p.m. ET, so let’s get to the TSI projections.
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever (-6.5), O/U 166.5
Indiana is just 1-4 straight up and ATS in their last five, while Connecticut has also managed to win just one game in its last five and covered just twice. These teams have played three times this season, with Indiana winning two out of three by an average margin of 7.5 and an average combined total of 163. TSI projects Fever -5 with a total of 172.5, and using just these teams’ last five games, I’d actually make Connecticut a half-point favorite with a total of 176.5. I’d lean Over here, but would prefer to bet the side, so I’m going to back the Sun.
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun +6.5 (play to +5.5)
Washington Mystics vs. LA Sparks (-3.5), O/U 170.5
Washington has won and covered in two of its last three games, while LA has won three of five and failed to cover in their last two. The Sparks have won both previous meetings this season by an average margin of 13 and an average combined total of 179. TSI projects LA -1.5 with a total of 171. Given the matchup history, the slight nod from TSI, and the fact that the Sparks have gone Over in 8 of their last 10, I’d lean Over here, but I won’t make it official.
WNBA Pick: Lean Over 170.5
Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 170.5
Arike Ogunbowale is out for Dallas again with an injury, but this total still sits above 170 due to the Wings’ putrid defense. The Aces have won five in a row and covered in four of those five, while Dallas is just 1-4 in its last five games, but they have managed to cover in four out of five. These teams have played three times this season with an average margin of 11, but skewed by one 26-point win in July, and a combined total of 178. TSI projects Aces -5.5 with a total of 175.5. I’m going to take the Over here, as the Aces have gone Over in seven of their last ten games and all numbers point to it.
WNBA Pick: Over 170.5 (Play to 171.5)
Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury (-1), O/U 165
Seattle finally managed to secure a win on Friday against Atlanta after losing and failing to cover in five consecutive games before. Phoenix has dropped back-to-back games and also failed to cover in both of them. Seattle has won two out of three previous matchups, but the one Phoenix win was by more points (22) than the two Seattle wins combined (19). The average combined total was 154.5. TSI projects Phoenix -3.5 with a total of 163. I am going to play Phoenix here and lean Under as well.
WNBA Picks: Phoenix Mercury -1 (play to -2); Lean Under 165
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream (-4), O/U 153
As I mentioned, Atlanta dropped a game to Seattle Friday night after being red hot previously, winning and covering in their previous four games. Golden State has flipped a switch lately, winning and covering in four straight as well. These teams split the previous two matchups, both decided by single digits, with a combined total of 161.5. TSI projects Dream -3.5 with a total of 151.5. Both teams have been great ATS this season, but I have to ride the Valkyries at home, and I’d lean Under as well.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries +4 (Play to +3.5); Lean Under 153
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