WNBA Picks
We’ve got another five-pack on the slate in the WNBA as we inch nearer the playoffs (and football season). Playoff seeding is still very much up in the air, as is the draft lottery, so understanding teams’ motivations at this point is also a critical factor in handicapping these games down the stretch. Here are today’s TSI projections for each game:
New York Liberty (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Lynx, O/U 165.5
These teams just played three days ago, with Minnesota taking home a six-point win, which extended their current win streak. They’ve won their last five games outright and covered in four of the five. The Liberty are just 2-3 in their last five with just one cover in the process. That hasn’t stopped the market from moving toward them here after opening -1. Minnesota has won all three matchups this season, by an average margin of 8.5, with an average combined total of 171. TSI projects Minnesota -5.5 with a total of 169.5, which is a nod to how much better Minnesota has been than New York lately, with both teams’ stars missing several games.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx +2.5 (Play to -2)
Washington Mystics (-6) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 157.5
I had left Connecticut for dead a while back, but they’re still battling to the best of their ability. They just aren’t a good basketball team. They’re just 1-4 in their last five, with the lone win coming over the Angel Reese-less Sky, but they are 2-2-1 ATS in that span. Washington has put together back-to-back wins, covering in both, and has covered in four of their last five. Washington won both prior meetings, once by 37 and once by five, with an average combined total of 173. TSI projects Washington -8.5 with a total of 158, and the last five games’ data and the home/road splits formulas would each make this a double-digit Mystics win.
WNBA Pick: Washington Mystics -6 (Play to -7)
Las Vegas Aces (-2) vs. Atlanta Dream, O/U 165
No team is hotter than Vegas right now, as they’ve won each of their last five games and covered in four of them. Atlanta is no slouch, though, winning four of their last five and covering in four of five as well. These teams have played just once this season, with Vegas winning by 15 with a combined total of 159. TSI projects Dream -4 with a total of 167.5. I honestly was shocked to see such a discrepancy here, but even the data from the last five games favors Atlanta, and the home/road splits lean even more heavily toward Atlanta. I’m all in on the Dream here.
WNBA Pick: Atlanta Dream +2 (Play to pick)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury (-6.5), O/U 155
Phoenix is 3-2 straight up and ATS in their last five games, while Golden State is 4-1 straight up and ATS. Phoenix has won the two regular-season matchups by an average of five points with a combined total of 159. TSI projects Mercury -4 with a total of 153.5, so at these numbers, I think I’m going to just pass on this game altogether.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm (-11), O/U 158
Chicago has lost and failed to cover in four consecutive games, while Seattle hasn’t been much better, going just 1-4 in their last five games. In the lone meeting this season, Seattle won by 38 with a combined total of 152. TSI projects Seattle -13.5 with a total of 156. I don’t trust this Chicago team one way or another right now, and with a double-digit spread, there figures to be some garbage time, so I’m going to pass here as well.
WNBA Pick: Pass
