WNBA Picks
Another night in the WNBA where you just look at the results and shrug. Chicago beat New York as 15-point underdogs (sorry about the NY bet!), Connecticut has decided to start winning games rather than tank, despite having no chance to make the playoffs, and three of the four games went Under the total by an average of 24.6 points. We’ve got three games slated for Friday night, so buckle up for some more WNBA action and hopefully another profitable night – we did manage to cash Dream +3.5 and Aces/Mercury Under 171. Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx (-6.5), O/U 163.5
It feels like Indiana hasn’t played in forever, and it feels like Minnesota plays every day – they are on a back-to-back tonight. Minnesota has dropped two straight games, which is definitely strange territory for them. Napheesa Collier has remained out, but she was close to playing yesterday, so I’m wondering if she finds herself in the lineup tonight, perhaps on a minutes restriction. Indiana is just 2-3 in their last five games, going just 1-3-1 ATS in that span, so both of these teams need a jolt of life here tonight to get back on track. TSI projects Lynx -8 with a total of 172.5, and looking at all formulas, the Over feels like the play here.
WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 (Play to 165.5)
Phoenix Mercury (-6) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 155.5
These teams just played a week ago, and Phoenix won 98-91 in a rare high-scoring game from the Valkyries; however, Phoenix just got smoked by Vegas last night and has to turn around and play against a frustrating Valks defense on the second leg of the back-to-back. Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in their last five, while Golden State is on another 4-1 ATS run. Phoenix has swept the series this season, not counting a preseason matchup that Golden State won, by an average of about 5 points per game and an average total of 169. TSI projects Phoenix -3 with a total of 154.5, and the last five games’ data actually favors Golden State by 3.5.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries +6 (play to +5)
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm (-8.5), O/U 169.5
Coming off a ridiculous 44-point game, Paige Bueckers and the Wings host the Seattle Storm, who are just 2-3 in their last five games and just 1-4 ATS in that span. Dallas is just 1-4 in their last five but have covered in three of those. TSI projects Storm -7.5, but honestly, this projection is very skewed by the home/road component of the formula, which kills Dallas’s rating, but all other components make this more like Seattle -4 or -4.5, and the TSI projected total is 167.5. I’m going to ride Paige’s hot hand here and think that Dallas can keep it within the number against a struggling Storm team.
WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings +8.5 (play to +7.5)
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