WNBA Picks
Three afternoon matchups for Saturday in the WNBA, starting off with the Atlanta Dream hosting the New York Liberty at 2 p.m. ET, followed by the Las Vegas Aces visiting the Washington Mystics at 3 p.m. ET, and the Chicago Sky, who welcomed Angel Reese back into the lineup, hosting the Connecticut Sun in the battle of bottom-dwellers.
Here are the T Shoe Index projections for each game:
Atlanta Dream (-4) vs. New York Liberty, O/U 161
New York is an ugly 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, and just 3-13-1 ATS on the road this season, while also managing to go 0-5-1 ATS as an underdog. Atlanta, on the other hand, is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and 9-7 at home, while going 13-8 ATS as a favorite. New York did manage to win two of the previous three matchups this season by seven and five points, while Atlanta won by nine in their lone win. The average combined total was 166.5, aligning with the TSI projection of 167.5 for this game, with Atlanta being projected as a 2.5-point favorite. I’m going to play the Over here, where New York is 4-1-1 as an Underdog this season.
WNBA Pick: Over 161 (Play to 163)
Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces (-7.5), O/U 161
Washington has surprisingly won two of the three matchups this season, winning by two points and 11 points, while Vegas owns a single three-point win over Washington. The average combined total was 154. TSI projects Aces -9 with a total of 162, and given the roll that the Aces are on right now in contrast with the Mystics losing three of their last five and only covering in two of those, I’m going to ride the Aces here in hopes that they continue their late-season onslaught after covering in four of five games.
WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
Chicago Sky (-2.5) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 158.5
Chicago got Angel Reese back on a limited basis last game, and her status is up in the air for this one, so it’s a little tough to try to gauge which Chicago team will show up. They’ve been absolutely dreadful without her, but then beat the Liberty outright as 15-point underdogs last game. Connecticut is on a 6-3-1 ATS run, which again, is a head-scratcher, but I digress. TSI projects Sun -3.5 with a total of 156.5. Both teams have tended to go Under lately, but the Reese dynamic for Chicago is just too much uncertainty for me to make a play at this point.
WNBA Pick: Pass
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
