WNBA Picks
Happy Mamba Day to all who celebrate (8/24, for Kobe)! We’ve got three WNBA games on the Sunday slate after another 2-1 day, thanks to the Aces taking care of business on both the side and total for us yesterday. I watched 12 hours of middle school volleyball yesterday, so I am more than ready for some professional hoops to cleanse my soul from what I witnessed at times yesterday. Here are the T Shoe Index projects for Sunday:
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm (-8.5), O/U 158
Washington is on a back-to-back here as they host Seattle, who throttled Paige Bueckers and the Wings Friday night by 35 points in Dallas. That’s back-to-back wins for the Storm, who are trying to find their footing heading into the playoffs. However, Washington has won both previous meetings by an average of eight points with an average combined total of 135. TSI projects Seattle -9 with a total of 158.5, so there’s not much room here to make a play, but I would lean Over here based on how these teams are playing lately.
WNBA Pick: Lean Over 158
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries (-2.5), O/U 158.5
I downplayed Dallas’s abysmal home rating in their game against Seattle, and that was a tragic mistake because they got blown out in a big way, so my apologies for ignoring that piece of counter-evidence before betting Dallas. Golden State is on a three-game losing streak and is just 1-2 ATS in those games, while Dallas has lost four in a row but is 2-2 ATS in those. These teams have split the season series 1-1, basically splitting the total points evenly as well, with an average combined total of 156.5. TSI projects Valkyries -6 with a total of 160 here, with the last five games’ data and home/away splits aligning on the Valkyries minus the points here.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries -2.5 (play to -3.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-12) vs. Indiana Fever, O/U 167.5
Minnesota just beat Indiana by five in the last game, but now returns MVP-favorite Napheesa Collier back into the lineup. Indiana is just 2-3 in its last five with just one ATS win in that span, while Minnesota is 3-2 straight up and ATS, but those games were without Collier, so I wouldn’t put too much into those numbers. Indiana beat Minnesota by 15 in July, and Minnesota won by five last week to split the season series, with an average combined total of 159.TSI projects Minnesota -15 with a total of 172.5, thanks in large part to these teams’ last five games’ data, indicating a total of 190+. I’m going to play the Over and pass on the Lynx side because Collier could be on a minutes restriction, which would make this price less valuable.
WNBA Pick: Over 167.5 (Play to 168.5)
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