WNBA Picks
Another solid 2-1 night last night, as the Aces couldn’t quite bury the Sky like I had hoped, but the Connecticut Sun took care of their part in covering a big number and keeping the total Under the number. We’re back tonight with another doubleheader featuring LA hosting Phoenix and Indiana hosting Seattle. One quick programming note, be sure to read my Monday and Thursday college football articles that will include best bets and projections, and starting next week, I will have the same for NFL, if you’re into more than just WNBA—and I’m assuming you are. Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
LA Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury (-4), O/U 178.5
Phoenix has won two of three and three of five, but covered in just two of their last five, while LA similarly has won two out of three and three out of five, but they have failed to cover in four straight. These teams have played twice this season, with Phoenix winning by three and five points, with an average combined total of 170. TSI projects Phoenix -4.5, but that’s truthfully because of the home/road split component, where LA has been terrible, but they’ve also played the majority of the season without Cameron Brink, so I think their more recent games are more important, and that component favors Phoenix by just two. Also worth noting, the market estimation formula also has Phoenix by just two. When those two formulas align, they’ve hit 10 of the last 13 plays. The TSI total is 173.5, and none of my formulas are even above 175.5, so this 178.5 is way out of control, in my opinion. I’m going to play both LA and the Under.
WNBA Picks: Sparks +4 or better; Under 178.5 (Play to 176.5)
Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm (-3.5), O/U 167.5
Seattle was struggling just a week or two ago, but they’ve rattled off three straight wins on the road, although only covering in one of those. Indiana has dropped four of its last five and did not cover a single time, but they pushed in one of them. Head-to-head, Indiana won both previous matchups by an average of six points with an average combined total of 166. TSI projects Seattle -4.5 with a total of 168.5, so there’s not a ton of value on the surface. The last five games’ data would favor Seattle by 8.5, so the Storm would be my lean, but this will be their fourth game in a week, so I wonder if the road fatigue shows itself tonight. I’m going to pass.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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