WNBA Picks
We split our bets last night, as Paige Bueckers sat for Dallas and the Sun took care of them to easily cover; however, Vegas remained nuclear and beat Atlanta to win yet another consecutive game. Tonight, we’ve got three contests queued up, with Washington visiting the Liberty, Minnesota hosting Seattle and Phoenix hosting Chicago. Although there are three games, the early look at the numbers suggests our volume will be low today, as there are lots of conflicting data points in these matchups. Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty (-12.5) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 163
Washington is in a bit of a freefall right now, losing four in a row and covering just once in that span. New York has had its own struggles but looks to put those behind it, as they get Breanna Stewart reintegrated into the lineup. New York won both previous meetings by an average of 15 points per game with an average combined total of 156. TSI projects Liberty -11.5 with a total of 162.5, so not much room to work with on this line. Add in the fact that the last five games’ data says NY -12 and the market estimation formula says NY -15, and I am officially out on this game.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) vs. Seattle Storm, O/U 164.5
Seattle had seemingly turned it around before getting smashed by the Fever; although, in fairness, that was their fourth game in a week on the road, and I think fatigue set in. But they’re back on the road tonight for their sixth game in 11 days. Minnesota has won two straight after dropping the previous two, and Napheesa Collier is back in the lineup. Minnesota has won two out of three meetings this season, with the total points being basically even and an average combined total of 171.5. TSI projects Lynx -5 with a total of 165, but I cannot properly quantify the fatigue factor that is sure to hurt Seattle here, and a 3.5-point adjustment seems reasonable to me. The total is interesting because although TSI is basically in line with the market, the last five games’ data would make this total in the high 170s, and these teams have played some high-scoring games already this year. I’m not going to play it, but my lean would be the Over.
WNBA Pick: Lean Over 164.5
Phoenix Mercury (-12) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 164
Chicago has lost four of its last five but covered in three of the five, while Phoenix has won four out of five and covered in three of those after hitting a rough patch previously. Phoenix has swept the season series 3-0 so far, by an average margin of 14, with an average combined total of 175.5. TSI projects Phoenix -11.5 with a total of 161. The last five games would indicate an even lower-scoring game, projecting just 158.5 points in a 13-point Phoenix win. I had every intention of playing the Under here, but seeing that they’ve combined for 175.5 points in three matchups this season has talked me out of that bet, and I’ll just lean that way instead.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 164
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