WNBA Picks
I don’t want to jinx it, but TSI seems to be humming right now, or maybe teams are just finally playing somewhat predictably. Either way, we’re cashing bets, and that’s the important thing here. After one game yesterday, we have a whopping five games in the W today, with plenty of line movement already and a 1 p.m. ET start, so no time to waste. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday, August 3rd.
Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty (-13), O/U 172
Connecticut is undoubtedly the worst team in the league; however, they just upset the Breanna Stewart-less Liberty just a few days ago as double-digit ‘dogs, and find themselves getting a baker’s dozen points again today. Stewart is still out of the lineup. This line opened at Liberty -7 and shot up to -13, while the total jumped from 166.5 to 172. TSI projects Liberty -8 with a total of 174.5. It’s probably too late to take the Over, and Liberty coach Sandy Brondello just seems like too good a coach to let her team no-show against a bad team two games in a row; therefore, I’d lean Sun here, but I’m not officially going to play it due to the context.
WNBA Pick: Lean Connecticut Sun +13
Atlanta Dream (-6.5) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 157.5
Atlanta will be without Rhyne Howard and Brittney Griner again today, but that didn’t stop them from pummeling Phoenix Friday night. Today, they’ll host the Washington Mystics. We’ve seen the total drop four points already, down to 157.5, while the spread has moved slightly but found its way back to the opener of 6.5. TSI projects Mystics -1.5 with a total of 161. Why the discrepancy? Washington’s median performance on the road has been rated 11 points higher than at home, similar to our friends, the LA Sparks, who continue to print money for us on the road. Atlanta being short-handed in its second game in three days, combined with being six points worse at home, gives us plenty of reason to back Washington here.
WNBA Pick: Washington Mystics +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
Seattle Storm (-2.5) vs. Indiana Fever, O/U 163
I’m not going to lie, when I saw this spread, my mind immediately said “Fever!” as I’m sure a lot of bettors did, since the line has moved a point in Indiana’s favor. However, I then looked at the numbers, which unanimously favor Seattle by at least 2.5 points and as high as 6, while the official TSI number is Seattle -3.5. The total has moved from 159.5 to 163, and I’d still lean Over, but it’s not playable to me now because although TSI projects 167, I do have some conflicting projections that have it below the current 163. I’ll lean Over but nothing official on this one.
WNBA Pick: Lean Over 163
Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 156.5
This is either the ultimate bounce-back spot or the Aces as we know them are no more. They got absolutely blown off the map yesterday by Napheesa Collier—who was injured—and the Minnesota Lynx. Today, they’ll host the Valkyries, who have excelled in the underdog role this year. The total has remained at 156.5, but the spread just moved three points toward Vegas after opening at 4.5. TSI can’t quite get there with the Aces, making them just a 2.5-point favorite at home with a total of 163.5. Due to the spot, I really just don’t want any part of this game because mentally, a 50-point loss has a broad range of potential mental consequences, so I’m just going to take the data point and move on.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury (-13.5), O/U 166.5
Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins remain out for Chicago, which pretty much automatically means I want nothing to do with Chicago or an Over before I even look at the numbers. The Chicago offense is absolutely atrocious without those two. The line has moved from Phoenix -10 to -13.5, and the total has remained at 166.5, while TSI projects Phoenix -12 with a total of 167.5. Like I said, I want no part of Chicago or an Over without those two in the lineup, so this is a pass for me.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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