WNBA Picks
We are back with five games Tuesday after an odd one day hiatus in the WNBA schedule. I stunk up the place on Sunday, so honestly I wasn’t too upset that there were no games yesterday. The thing with a break like that, though, is that it gives lines way more time than usual to get moved, and we’ve seen just that, as several spreads and totals have moved 3+ points already, which I’ll address in the individual game breakdowns.
Here are Tuesday’s WNBA projections from the T Shoe Index:
Chicago Sky vs Washington Mystics (-8.5), O/U 157.5
Angel Reese is again out for Chicago, who appears to just be tanking at this point. Reese and Ariel Atkins have barely played since the All-Star Break. Not great for a team I was wrongly high on in the preseason. The spread has moved from Mystics -4.5 to -8.5 and the total has dropped from 158.5 to 157.5, while TSI projects Mystics -9.5 with a total of 162.5. You couldn’t pay me to bet a Sky Over without Reese and Atkins, so this is a stay away now, although transparently, I did grab Mystics -5.5 Monday morning.
Advice: Stay away
Phoenix Mercury (-15.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 168.5
Connecticut sits at 5-22 and should also probably consider the tanking route, although honestly, they may not even have to since they’re so organically bad. Phoenix has legitimate title aspirations, they just have to keep their star trio healthy and engaged for the home stretch and they’ll be in the mix. We’ve seen the spread move a point towards Phoenix and the total rise 5 points already, and TSI projects Phoenix -16.5 with a total of 160. The discrepancy likely lies in the fact that Connecticut averages 12 fewer points per game on the road than at home, so I think I’m going to play the Under here, relying on Connecticut to come in somewhere around their 68 point road average and hope Phoenix doesn’t score 100+.
Bet: Under 168.5 (Play to 166.5)
New York Liberty (-11) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 175
New York is still without Breanna Stewart, who’s out with a bone bruise in her knee, and Jonquel Jones is still ramping her minutes back up after an ankle injury kept her out for several weeks.They’ve been a little shaky lately, but Dallas just traded away the one player in its starting lineup who’s considered an ace defender, Dijonai Carrington, and waived its 6’7” center Tierra McCowan. This game is kind of a mess, but we’ve seen the spread move 3.5 points towards New York and 5.5 points towards the Over. TSI projects Liberty -10.5 with a total of 172, so I’m going to lean Under, but I don’t feel confident enough to make it official, given the moving parts for both teams.
Lean: Under 175
Seattle Storm (-2) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 156.5
In what may go down as the biggest coaching blunder of the year, Lynx coach Cherly Reeve had likely MVP Napheesa Collier in the game with a 40+ point lead late in the third quarter last game and Collier stepped on someone’s foot and sprained her ankle. She’s officially out at least two weeks, but that sprain looked nasty so I won’t be surprised if it’s longer — though obviously I hope she’s back ASAP. That’s why Seattle is a favorite over the best team in the league, and we’ve seen the total drop 3 points already. TSI projects Lynx -1 despite the injury, with a total of 162. We don’t have a ton of Minnesota data without Collier, so I’m hesitant to make a play on either the side or total here. Let’s just let this one play out and use it as a data point for future games.
Advice: Stay away
Los Angeles Sparks vs Indiana Fever (-2), O/U 176.5
Caitlin Clark is still out of the lineup for Indiana, but they seem to have found some rhythm lately without her; meanwhile, LA is bolstered by the return of young star Cameron Brink, who can provide some floor spacing and much-needed defensive presence for a team allowing 87 points per game. LA opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the market has moved all the way to Indiana -2.5, while the total has jumped 4 points from 172.5 to 176.5. TSI projects Fever -2 with a total of 176.5, so right in line with the market. Looks like another stay away, unfortunately, but this one should have some fireworks if you’re able to tune in at 10pm ET.
Advice: Stay away
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
