WNBA Picks
There was only one game last night in the W, and we didn’t have any action on it so today’s three-game slate is a welcome sight. The Chicago Sky will host the Atlanta Dream, the LA Sparks host Connecticut, and Phoenix hosts the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever. There haven’t been as many drastic line moves overnight, so there’s still plenty of value to be had on the board.
Let’s get to the T Shoe Index projections for Thursday, August 7th.
Chicago Sky vs. Atlanta Dream (-9.5), O/U 159.5
Angel Reese is still out and without an official timeline for her return from injury, although the Sky did get Ariel Atkins back in their win over Washington this week. Atlanta has seen the line move 1.5 points in their favor, despite Brittney Griner being out with an injury. TSI projects Atlanta -17 (!) due to Chicago’s horrific rating at home, where they’ve been 16 points worse this season in opponent-adjusted game grades, while Atlanta has actually been 10 points better on the road than at home. All Dream for me here. TSI also projects the total at 163.5, so I’m also going to play the over, where Atlanta is 10-5 on the road this season.
WNBA Picks: Atlanta Dream -9.5 (Play to -12), Over 159.5 (Play to 161.5)
LA Sparks (-10) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 175.5
LA is playing at home, so if you’ve been reading me for a while, you know what that means. They’ve been awful at home this year; although they do have Cameron Brink back in the lineup, and she’s making her impact felt, accumulating five blocks in just 15 minutes recently. Connecticut is bad, we know this, but LA is dreadful at home, going just 3-10 ATS this season. TSI projects LA -4.5 with a total of 168, so I actually like the side and the total here. The market agrees and has moved towards the Sun, while the total dipped briefly and is back to the opening 175.5.
WNBA Picks: Connecticut Sun +10 (Play to +8), Under 175.5 (Play to 173.5)
Phoenix Mercury (-4) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 173.5
Just when I thought the Fever had figured things out without Caitlin Clark, they go and lose to the Sparks and give up 100 points in the process. Phoenix has won back-to-back games, albeit against the two worst teams in the league in Chicago and Connecticut. The market has moved 2.5 points towards Indiana and 2 points to the Over, while TSI projects Phoenix -5.5 with a total of 174, so there’s not much left here to play. At this point, I’ll just pass.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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