WNBA Picks
Another trio of games ahead for this Friday night in the WNBA. The league results continue to be wildly inconsistent, as evidenced by Connecticut scoring 91 points after averaging just 77 over their previous four games, and Indiana scoring just 60 and getting blown out by Phoenix after seemingly hitting their stride without Caitlin Clark. All we can do at this point is shrug and keep trusting the process.
Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty (-8.5), O/U 173.5
After a brief scare last game when Paige Bueckers was taken to the locker room with an apparent back injury, she is expected to play tonight vs. New York, although the market has moved a point towards the Liberty. New York is still without Breanna Stewart and has really struggled recently, going just 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They’re just 2-10-1 ATS on the road this season. Not that Dallas is much to write home about, but TSI projects Liberty -3 with a total of 177.5. I would lean Over as well, but my official play here will be Dallas +8.5, as New York has just been atrocious from a game grade standpoint on the road this season.
WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
Las Vegas Aces (-1) vs. Seattle Storm, O/U 163.5
This game features two of the most head-scratching teams in the league; on one hand, the Aces won two of the three previous championships and were contenders last year, and replaced Kelsey Plum with Jewell Lloyd, but they have been extremely disappointing and inconsistent all year as they sit at just 16-14 on the season. Seattle, with the same record, looked like legitimate contenders at times, but they have lost 4 of 5, only beating Connecticut over that stretch. The market has moved a half point towards Seattle on the road, and the total has risen two points, while TSI projects Storm -3 with a total of 166. This game is the ultimate “what numbers do you trust most: season-long or recent?” test, because the season-long numbers really favor Seattle, while the recent numbers give a strong edge to Vegas. I’m going to stay away from the side and play the total instead, because the home/road splits for these teams project 174 points to be scored, and looking at the last five games only, I’d project 169.
WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 (Play to 164.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 156
Minnesota is still without MVP favorite Napheesa Collier as she recovers from an ankle injury sustained last week. That’s not stopping the market from moving a point towards Minnesota at home in the wake of the news that Washington traded forward Aaliyah Edwards to get Jacy Sheldon for some backcourt help after trading Brittney Sykes earlier this week. TSI projects Minnesota -9.5 with a total of 166.5, but with so many moving parts here, I’m going to pass altogether and try to get more data on Minnesota without Collier and Washington with its new backcourt rotation.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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