WNBA Picks
We’ve got a doubleheader in the WNBA today, with the injury-riddled Indiana Fever taking on the Chicago Sky—minus Angel Reese—and the Golden State Valkyries hosting the Los Angeles Sparks. Some quick trends heading into today: Chicago is just 1-9 ATS in the last 10 games, including 3-6-1 O/U over that span. LA has printed money on the road this year, going 11-4 ATS away from home. However, Golden State is 9-4 ATS at home. Contrasting styles in the later game, as LA is 9-1 to the Over in their last 10, while Golden State is 3-7 O/U in their last 10.
Here are the T Shoe Index projections for tonight:
Indiana Fever (-10.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 162.5
Indiana opened as a consensus 11.5-point favorite, but we’ve seen the market move a point towards Chicago, while the total has dropped 3 points from 165.5 to 162.5. Chicago has had Ariel Atkins back in the lineup, which has made a huge difference for them in the backcourt. Indiana found out yesterday that Aari McDonald and Sydney Colson will both miss the rest of the season with injuries, and Caitlin Clark is still out, so their backcourt depth got obliterated quickly. TSI projects Indiana -7.5 with a total of 169, but with the plethora of injuries to the Fever, I don’t really want to touch the total, but I will bite on the Sky +10.5.
WNBA Pick: Chicago Sky +10.5 (Play to +9.5)
Golden State Valkyries vs. LA Sparks (-4), O/U 165
This game is a battle of the cash cows, as I noted in the intro, due to the fact these teams have performed excellently in their respective home/road splits this season. In opponent-adjusted game grades, LA has been 17 points better on the road and Golden State has been 14 points better at home this season. The market has moved 2 points towards LA here, while the total has increased a half point, and TSI projects LA -2 with a total of 168. In LA’s last five road games, the total combined points scored has been 183, so I really like the over here.
WNBA Pick: Over 165 (Play to 166)
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