WNBA Picks
Apparently, while I was sleeping last night, I missed a banger of a bad beat on our Wings/Sky Over bet, as the teams went scoreless over the last ~3 minutes. That’s betting for you. We get back on the horse today with a doubleheader of WNBA action, with the Sparks hosting the Lynx this afternoon at 3 p.m. ET and the Mystics hosting the Aces tonight.
Here are the T Shoe Index projections for Thursday’s slate:
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) O/U 163.5
I was fortunate to be waiting on the opening lines yesterday and caught DraftKings with their pants down as they posted Minnesota -4.5. That quickly disappeared. It’s remained steady around 6.5 or 7 since, while the total has ascended from 161.5 to 163.5, and TSI projects Lynx -13.5 with a total of 162. So yes, I still like Minnesota at 6.5. If you follow me on X @TShoeIndex, you saw me post yesterday that LA’s rating is a whopping 11.3 points lower at home than on the road this season – by far the biggest drop-off in the league.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -6.5 (Play to -8.5)
Washington Mystics (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 158.5
Definitely the biggest story here is the questionable status of Aces star and MVP, A’ja Wilson. The line movement from Aces -4 to Mystics -2.5 indicates she probably won’t play, and I think a 6 or 6.5 point adjustment for her is appropriate. We’ve also seen the total tick down to 158.5 from 161.5, while TSI projections Mystics -3 without Wilson, with a total of 156. The Aces’ games have been about 9 points lower on the road than at home this season, although it’s hard to discern how Wilson’s absence may or may not affect that, but it’s worth noting. I’ll lean Under here, but I could make the argument that a defensive anchor like Wilson missing may actually increase the scoring in this game, so I’ll pass, but it would be Under or nothing for me at the current lines.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 158.5
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