WNBA Picks
There are few matchups in the WNBA that are as colossal from a narrative standpoint as what we’re about to see today: Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever taking on Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings. Both teams have been pretty underwhelming so far this season, but these two stars are absolutely among the torchbearers of the league, and will be for years to come. Also on Sunday, we’ve got the New York Liberty hosting the Atlanta Dream, the Los Angeles Sparks hosting the Connecticut Sun, and the Seattle Storm battling the Washington Mystics.
Here are today’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Indiana Fever (-10.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 174.5
It’s hard to fathom that one game will dictate the league narrative about these two superstars, but I’ve already seen on X how venomous the discourse is surrounding this game already. From a betting standpoint, the line opened and has remained at Fever -10.5, while the total has inched up to 174.5 from 172.5. TSI begs to differ, calling for Fever -6.5 with a total of 171.5. I think factoring in the intensity of this game, the fact Dallas gets Arike Ogunbowale back today, and that the Fever are just 2-10 ATS this season when favored by 5+, I’m going to back Paige Bueckers and the Wings getting double digits.
WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings +10.5 (Play to +8.5)
New York Liberty (-4.5) vs. Atlanta Dream, O/U 166.5
Atlanta really let us down in their last game against the Fever, when All-Star Allisha Gray was basically non-existent. So much so that I literally checked the box score in the third quarter to see if she was even playing or if I’d missed an injury update. New York is – by their standards – limping into the All-Star week, having gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and just 2-3 outright in their last five. The market is buying the Liberty though, moving the line from -3.5 to -4.5, while the total has remained at 166.5. TSI projects Liberty -2 with a total of 166. I will lean Atlanta here, but the home/road split formula would make this Liberty -5, so I’m going to stay away from anything official at the current numbers.
WNBA Pick: Lean Atlanta Dream +4.5
LA Sparks (-11.5) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 162.5
Honestly, it’s bizarre to see LA laying double digits to anyone with their putrid defense, which gives up about 86 points per game. I had written Connecticut off, too, but they’ve at least shown some life is still left in them after beating Seattle and then covering against them in back-to-back games. The line has stayed around 11.5, and the total has risen to 162.5 from 161.5, but TSI projects a much tighter game, making the line Sparks -8 with a total of 161. Reminder about the Sparks being substantially worse at home than on the road this season, and that home/road split formula makes this game even tighter (LA -6.5). I’m going to – reluctantly – back Connecticut here. What could go wrong?
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun +11.5 (Play to +10)
Seattle Storm (-6.5) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 159.5
Seattle is in a strange place right now, as they were rapidly rising as a legitimate contender (and still can be). They inexplicably lost to Connecticut and followed that up with another competitive win against the Sun. They’re now just 5-9 ATS as favorites, and Washington has thrived as underdogs, going 7-5 ATS. Seattle is 13-8 on the season but just 5-5 in their last 10 heading into the All-Star week. The line has moved a half point to -6.5 after opening Storm -6, and the total has remained at 159.5. TSI projects Seattle -1 with a total of 160.5, so I’m going to back Washington here. I wouldn’t even hate a ML sprinkle at +225, as the home/road split formula calls for Washington -1.5!
WNBA Pick: Washington Mystics +6.5 (play to +4.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
