WNBA Picks
A very solid Sunday slate for us, despite Paige Bueckers basically being the only one for Dallas who played like she has ever been in a basketball game. Washington got the outright win as I insisted they might against Seattle, and Connecticut played a tight one with the Sparks, cashing easily for us. Today, we’ve got just two games on tap, so less volume, of course, but still opportunity to cash some bets, so let’s see what the TSI projections look like for today:
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx (-10.5), O/U 161.5
A rematch between these teams after just a few days since Chicago shocked everyone and beat Minnesota outright as 12-point dogs. The market is rightfully unfooled by the one-off, and Minnesota is again a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 161.5, both numbers have not changed since opening. TSI projects Minnesota -10.5 with a total of 161, so a rare lock-step projection between TSI and the betting market. Even the trends are pretty give-and-take here, so I really don’t see an edge to be had unless you want to play the revenge factor for Minnesota, but I think that’s a reach.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Golden State Valkyries (-2) vs. Phoenix Mercury, O/U 158.5
Golden State has been the ultimate cash cow this year, going 13-7 ATS and 8-2 ATS at home; however, Phoenix (even despite missing Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper, both of whom will also miss this game) is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and 5-3 ATS as an underdog. It feels like we’ve bet against Phoenix quite often this year, but this seems like a good spot to back them, as Golden State is in the rare favorite position for them, and the on-court numbers for the last 10 games actually have Phoenix as the best team in the league over that span. We have seen a half-point move towards the Valks here, and the total has dropped by a point, but TSI projects Phoenix -0.5 with a total of 159. Feel free to tell me I’m an idiot for fading Golden State if this doesn’t come home for us.
WNBA Pick: Phoenix Mercury +2 (play to +1.5)
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