WNBA Picks
I’m not sure what happened to the Washington Mystics last night, but I do apologize for that disaster of a bet yesterday. As I always say, the numbers are the numbers, and Washington absolutely deserved to be favored in that game, but that’s why they play them on the court and not on a spreadsheet. Nonetheless, we’ve got a full slate of games starting at noon eastern today, so no time to waste.
Here are today’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Chicago Sky vs.. Atlanta Dream (-9.5), O/U 158.5
Chicago has been playing much better lately and has worked their way into the middle of the pack in on-court ratings for me over their last 10 games, while Atlanta has cooled off a little bit after a hot start; however, Sky star Angel Reese has been ruled out for today with a leg injury, and the market has adjusted accordingly, moving from Dream -2.5 to Dream -9.5. TSI projects Atlanta -10.5 with a total of 165. I get that Reese is the Sky’s best player, but I’m not positive that’s going to impact the total all that much. Atlanta allows about 6.5 more points per game on the road than at home.
WNBA Pick: Over 158.5 (Play to 161.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-10) vs. Phoenix Mercury, O/U 158.5
Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally will miss again for the Mercury, but that didn’t stop them from being able to knock off Golden State the other night. Obviously, Minnesota is a much taller task, and the market has adjusted 3.5 points since opening, in favor of Minnesota, but TSI projects Minnesota -6 with a total of 159, even accounting for the injuries. I’m going to back Phoenix here as they’ve been playing better basketball than Minnesota lately.
WNBA Pick: Phoenix Mercury +10 (Play to +8)
Seattle Storm (-4.5) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 156.5
Seattle has had a Valkyries problem this year so far, losing both games to them outright as 4.5- and 9.5-point favorites. Golden State is coming off a loss to the shorthanded Mercury. The market has moved a half point towards Golden State and 4 points towards the Under. TSI projects Valkyries -1.5 with a total of 161. I’d lean Over and I’m going to bet the Valkyries cover again as Seattle is just 4-7 ATS at home, 5-10 ATS as favorites, and Golden State is 12-6 ATS as underdogs.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries +4.5 (Play to +2.5)
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces (-6), O/U 170.5
The last time we saw Dallas, they barely looked like a functional basketball team. Not that the Aces have been all that much better, as both teams have losing records this year and are at risk of missing the playoffs. TSI projects the Aces -5.5 with a total of 161.5, and the market has moved a half point towards Vegas and 2 points towards the Under. Dallas’s defense is abysmal, but this is a really high number compared to every formula I run, so I’m going to take the Under here.
WNBA Pick: Under 170.5 (Play to 168.5)
New York Liberty (-9.5) vs. Indiana Fever, O/U 164.5
Caitlin Clark appeared to re-injure her lingering groin injury in last night’s win vs Connecticut, so she will miss tonight’s game, which drove the line from New York -4.5 to -9.5, and the total dropped from 167.5 to 164.5. TSI projects New York -7.5 with a total of 164.5. New York has been very bad ATS lately and are kind of limping into the All-Star break, by their championship standards, and you never know what Fever team is going to show up, so I’m going to pass on this game.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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