WNBA Picks
We are back! I hope everyone had a nice All-Star break and enjoyed the weekend’s festivities. I thought the WNBA did a nice job of making the weekend eventful and entertaining. I thought getting Glorilla to perform at the All-Star game was a great choice for the event and for the demographic (I know my middle school daughter especially loved the performance). We are back with a full slate of games on Tuesday as the WNBA returns to action, so let’s get to the projections from the T Shoe Index.
Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 159.5
These teams are quite familiar with each other, having played three of the last four games. Chicago won one outright and lost by 13 in the next meeting. This line opened Minnesota -16.5 and actually touched -13.5 before being bet back up to 15.5, while the total has plummeted from 164.5 to 159.5. TSI projects Minnesota -11.5 with a total of 158.5, so I’m going to back Angel Reese and the Sky here to make this a respectable basketball game and not get blown out on the road, where they’ve been 7 points better this season from a rating perspective.
WNBA Pick: Chicago Sky +15.5 (Play to +13.5)
New York Liberty (-10.5) vs. Indiana Fever, O/U 163.5
Fresh off another 3-point contest win, Sabrina Ionescu and the Liberty will host the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever as 10.5-point favorites, and New York has seen the line move a point in their favor so far, while the total has remained at 163.5. This Fever team has been pretty erratic with Clark in and out of the lineup, so I don’t fully trust their power rating right now, to be honest, but I do think these teams are capable of putting up points. TSI projects New York -5.5 with a total of 166.5, so I’m going to play the Over here.
WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 (Play to 164.5)
Seattle Storm (-9.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 164
The key injury piece to this game is Dallas getting defensive ace Dinjonai Carrington back in the lineup after she’s missed a plethora of games so far this season. That should help shore up the side of the ball where Dallas is most deficient. We’ve seen the spread move a point toward Dallas with this news, and the total has dropped from 166.5 to 164. TSI projects Seattle -6.5 with a total of 167.5, so I think I’m going to back Paige and the Wings here at full strength.
WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings +9.5 (Play to +7.5)
Las Vegas Aces (-1) vs. Atlanta Dream, O/U 161.5
I think Atlanta is going to end up the favorite here. All of my formulas, including my “market mock” formula where I try to imitate the market’s ratings on teams, projects Atlanta as a favorite here, and we’ve seen the line move from 2.5 to 1 already. The total has dropped from 163.5 to 161.5. TSI projects Atlanta -4.5 with a total of 165.5, so I’m backing the Dream on the road, where they’ve been equally as good as they have been at home.
WNBA Pick: Dream +1 (Play to -1)
Washington Mystics (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 167.5
Both of these teams have been inconsistent, which is understandable given that their core players are mostly young. The Sparks are just biding time until they get star Camron Brink back from her ACL injury, but they’ve been bad without her, going just 8-14 so far this season. The market has pushed a point towards Washington, while the total has risen from 164.5 to 167.5. TSI projects Sparks at -1.5 with a total of 164.5, but these teams have been so inconsistent that I have a lot of conflicting data points here, so I’m going to pass.
WNBA Pick: Pass
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
