WNBA Picks
We had no action last night in what was a one-off game between the Phoenix Mercury and the Atlanta Dream. The Dream were on a back-to-back and the Mercury were getting two stars back in the lineup. There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding that game, so we stayed away. Tonight, we have a trio of games, including the Connecticut Sun hosting the LA Sparks, the Indiana Fever hosting the Las Vegas Aces, and the Chicago Sky hosting the Seattle Storm.
Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Connecticut Sun vs. LA Sparks (-6), O/U 168
I’ve mentioned numerous times how much better the Sparks have been on the road this season; according to my game grades, they’ve been 13 points better on the road than at home. That’s almost unfathomable, but it has been a good strategy for us to back/fade them appropriately. They’re on the road taking on the worst team in the league tonight and are laying just 6 points after opening as just 4.5 point favorites. TSI calls for a double-digit LA win, so I’m not going to think twice and back Kelsey Plum and company on the road again.
WNBA Pick: LA Sparks -6 (Play to -8)
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces (-2.5), O/U 163.5
Caitlin Clark is again expected to miss this game with her groin injury still lingering, which is why the Aces are road favorites in Indy. This Fever team has been a struggle to properly rate with their data so muddy from Clark being in and out. The one semi-consistent theme has been betting their Overs when TSI calls for it. They’re 6-4 to the Over in their last 10, 7-6 at home and 5-4 as underdogs, and TSI is again projecting 164, with supporting formulas as high as 168.5.
WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 (Play to 164)
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm (-9.5), O/U 157
Ariel Atkins is out for this game for Chicago, and Angel Reese is questionable with a leg injury. This team has been putrid without them in the lineup, so I definitely couldn’t back them here despite getting an additional 3 points since opening at 6.5. I did love the Under at 161.5, but it has bottomed out at 157 now, and TSI projects 158, so I’m out on that as well. This is one I’m going to pass on—just too much going against Chicago and not enough value on a number here.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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