WNBA Picks
Another tripleheader is on deck for tonight in the WNBA. Last night’s three games provided little drama, as the LA Sparks disposed of the Connecticut Sun by 15 on the road (cash that!), the Caitlin Clark-less Fever defeated the Las Vegas Aces at home, and the Seattle Storm demolished the Chicago Sky by 38 on the road as Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins missed for the Sky. Tonight’s matchups offer more hope of quality entertainment as the Liberty hosts the Sun, Vegas plays Minnesota on a back-to-back for the Aces, and the Valkyries take on Paige Bueckers and the Wings.
Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty (-6.5) vs. Phoenix Mercury, O/U 171.5
Phoenix really makes no sense. They had ascended to #2 in TSI ratings recently, playing a lot of games without stars Kahlea Copper and Satou Sabally. They got those players back against Atlanta, who was on a back-to-back, and lost by 11. Tonight, they travel to Barclays Center to take on Sabrina Ionescu and the Liberty, who have covered at home in eight out of 13 games. The line opened Liberty -5.5 and has moved to 6.5, while the total has jumped from 169.5 to 171.5. TSI projects New York -5.5 with a total of 165. However, in the two matchups between these teams this season, they’ve averaged 183.5 points, so I’m going to stay away altogether.
WNBA Pick: Stay away
Minnesota Lynx (-10) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 160.5
As I mentioned, the Aces are on a back-to-back and have been very mediocre this season, outside of A’ja Wilson’s dominance. Minnesota has arguably been the best team in the league throughout this season, and the market has moved 2.5 points in their favor so far for this game, while the total has dropped two points from 162.5 to 160.5. TSI only projects Minnesota -6.5 with a total of 154.5. Given the choice between backing Vegas or taking the Under, I’m going to take the Under. These teams have only played once this season, a 14-point win by Minnesota that totaled just 138 points.
WNBA Pick: Under 160.5 (Play to 158.5)
Golden State Valkyries (-4) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 161
Dallas had a tremendous performance against Seattle in Dijonai Carrington’s first game back from a rib injury. They’re now 4-point dogs on the road at Golden State, but Golden State has stumbled lately after a strong start. They’re just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in their last five games, so perhaps the market has over-inflated them a bit lately. TSI still projects Golden State -6.5 with a total of 163, and these teams have played just once, with Dallas winning by nine at home in a game that totaled 151 points. This is another stay away for me, as there is too much conflicting data.
WNBA Pick: Stay Away
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