WNBA Picks
Another Saturday doubleheader is upon us in the WNBA, with the New York Liberty hosting the Los Angeles Sparks and the Washington Mystics taking on the Seattle Storm. Of note, New York played last night in a game they fought hard to come from behind and win. I’ve got a few plays dialed up for today, and then tomorrow offers a massive menu of options, with five games in the W. Apparently, Minnesota has gone Death Star mode post All-Star break, so I apologize for the terrible Under bet that never had a chance yesterday. Back on the horse today.
Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty (-10.5) vs. LA Sparks, O/U 175.5
I was really hoping this total wasn’t going to move until after my article, because I’d have loved to give out Over 170.5 here. As it stands, I’ve turned my attention to the spread, where the line has moved a point towards LA, as New York is playing on the aforementioned back-to-back in Barclays Center. As I’ve noted several times, LA is 13 points better on the road than at home, so here is another spot they’re being undervalued, as TSI makes this game Liberty -9.5, and the home/road split formula specifically calls for New York -5.5. I project the total around 173, so smack dab in the middle of the move. Let’s roll with Kelsey Plum on the Sparks again.
WNBA Pick: LA Sparks +10.5 (Play to +10)
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm (-4.5), O/U 155.5
These are two teams the market hasn’t really been able to grasp lately; Seattle is just 2-3 ATS in its last five games, and Washington is a mere 1-4 ATS, while both teams have combined to go 7-13 ATS in their last 10 games apiece. So what can we do with this game? The spread has moved a point toward Washington, and the total has dropped a point, while TSI projects Storm -6.5 with a total of 154. There is much more consensus on the Under than on Seattle here in my numbers, and these teams’ average scores for the last games would be about 151.5, so I’m going to take the Under here. Not to mention, Seattle scored about 4 points per game fewer on the road than at home.
WNBA Pick: Under 155.5 (Play to 155)
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