WNBA Picks
We got a much-needed sweep yesterday, going 2-0 on best bets as the Sparks won outright against the Liberty and the Mystics/Storm game stayed well under the total. Today, we have a massive five-game slate, so I won’t waste any time getting to the projections and plays since the action tips off at 1 p.m. ET with the Sun hosting the Valkyries. Here’s what TSI has to say about today’s action:
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries (-5.5), O/U 156.5
The bad news for Golden State is that All-Star Kayla Thornton is out for the remainder of the year. With this news, we’ve seen the line move a point towards Connecticut and the total remains the same at 156.5. However, TSI projects Golden State -9.5 even without Thornton, and a total of 159.5. I definitely would not want to play the Over, because both teams have shown the ability to play a rock-fight type of game, but I still think the Valkyries can control the action and comfortably beat a bad team.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces (-9), O/U 166.5
Paige Bueckers has been announced out for this game for rest purposes, which isn’t something we’re really accustomed to seeing in the WNBA. But with her injury history, it makes sense to me why they’d want to keep her fresh and not overload her body as she adjusts to the WNBA schedule. The line moved 4.5 points upon this news, and the total has dropped two points to 166.5. TSI projects Aces -10 with a total of 164. I think there’s still meat on the bone to hit this Under.
WNBA Pick: Under 166.5 (Play to 165.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) vs. Atlanta Dream, O/U 159
Minnesota has been back to buzzsaw form for the last few games, and they’re now 9.5-point favorites over an Atlanta team that’s very good and equally as good on the road as they are at home. TSI projects Minnesota -4.5 with a total of 160, but Minnesota has won four in a row, all by double figures. The one matchup this season between these teams was a four-point Lynx win, for what it’s worth. Despite the perceived value, I’m going to hold off on backing Atlanta, but I do think the way these teams have played recently lends itself to an over, with their last five games each combining to average about 162.5 points. Atlanta is also 7-3 to the Over in games where they are an underdog.
WNBA Pick: Over 159 (Play to 160)
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever (-9), O/U 157.5
Chicago has been absolutely awful with Angel Reese out of the lineup—not that they’ve been world-beaters with her—and she is listed as questionable for this game while Caitlin Clark remains out with a groin injury. The interesting thing is that the total has dropped six points, but the spread has remained unmoved, so I’m not sure what to make of that in terms of Reese’s potential status. Without her, I’d play Indiana at virtually any number because Chicago literally can’t score without her. TSI projects Indiana -9.5 with a total of 164.5. I’m going to pass on the game altogether because of injury uncertainty at the time of writing this.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury (-7.5), O/U 164.5
Washington is on a back-to-back and will likely be without Aaliyah Edwards again, as she missed yesterday’s game with a wrist injury. Phoenix is getting back to full strength, which could be a scary sight for the rest of the league. The line has moved a half point towards Phoenix and the total has dropped two points so far. TSI projects Phoenix -5 with a total of 157, but keep in mind they’ve played a lot of games without their two best scorers, so the data isn’t exactly up to speed on them yet. I’m going to pass and just use this as a data collection game to sharpen Phoenix’s numbers in my system.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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