WNBA Picks
I was just talking about the whackiness of this WNBA season, only for the lowly Dallas Wings to beat the defending champs by double digits despite being 8-point underdogs. Maybe even as shocking as that was, the Connecticut Sun managed to score 85 points, although they did give up a 100-piece to Seattle. We’re back in the saddle Tuesday with three games, so let’s get to the T Shoe Index projections for those games.
LA Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces (-2), O/U 175
The long-awaited return of star Cameron Brink to the Los Angeles Sparks will take place Tuesday night against A’ja Wilson and the Aces. Despite this news, the line has moved from Aces -1 to Aces -2, and the total has skyrocketed from 169.5 to 175. Brink will likely be on a minutes restriction, but she should definitely start to improve the defense for the Sparks, especially. TSI projects Aces -4 with a total of 170. It’s unclear how Brink’s presence will impact the tempo and efficiency for LA, so for now I’m going to back the Aces, because as I’ve often pointed out, LA is 13 points worse at home than they are on the road, so this is almost an auto-fade of LA (since the number aligns).
WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces -2 (Play to -3)
Atlanta Dream (-7.5) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 156
Probably one of the wildest results of the year was Golden State getting absolutely housed by the Connecticut Sun this week. Kayla Thornton is done for the year, and Golden State has not looked good lately after a surprisingly successful start to the season. Atlanta, on the other hand, is coming off a huge win against Minnesota on the road. The line has moved a point towards Golden State and 5.5 points toward the Under, while TSI projects Dream -6 with a total of 157.5. Given how drastically worse Golden State has been lately compared to their season-long numbers, I’m going to pass on this game.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Washington Mystics (-7.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 156.5
More injury news, Aaliyah Edwards continues to miss time for Washington, while Ariel Atkins and Angel Reese have been in and out of the lineup for Chicago. The market has moved a point towards Washington and a point towards the Under, and TSI projects Washington -2 with a total of 157.5. Chicago hasn’t been good all season, but they’re Sun-level bad when Reese and/or Atkins don’t play, so without knowing for sure what their lineup is going to be, I hesitate to make a play here.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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