WNBA Picks
The Commissioner’s Cup is over, and the Indiana Fever prevailed as the in-season tournament champions, even without the services of Caitlin Clark. Now, we have a five-game slate on tap for Thursday night with the All-Star break looming next week. Hopefully, the break will give some stars who’ve been dealing with nagging injuries a chance to recover and come back at full strength when the season resumes. I will also be curious if we see Cameron Brink suit up for LA after the break, but that’s a question to ponder another day. For now, let’s get to Thursday’s projections from the T Shoe Index.
New York Liberty (-10) vs. LA Sparks, O/U 170
New York looked unbeatable early on, but they’re a team that could definitely use some time off to heal and recover from injuries. LA has the aforementioned Brink waiting to return to the court after her ACL injury last June. The line on this game opened Liberty -12.5 and has been all Sparks since, driving it down to 10, while the total has ticked up from 168.5 to 170. TSI projects Liberty -7.5 with a total of 171, so I still like LA at this number. It’s also worth noting the Liberty are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10.
WNBA Pick: LA Sparks +10 (Play to +9)
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm (-2), O/U 159
The key news in this game is the questionable status of Dream guard Rhyne Howard. The market seems to anticipate her not playing, as the line has moved from Dream -2 to Storm -2 overnight, and the total has dropped from 163.5 to 159. TSI projects Atlanta -1.5 with a total of 157. If Howard doesn’t play, I’d make that Storm -2.5. Given these teams’ propensity for lower-scoring games in their respective home/away situations – 5 points lower for Atlanta and about 13 for Seattle – I think the Under is the best play here.
WNBA Pick: Under 159 (play to 158)
Minnesota Lynx (-11.5) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 154.5
Minnesota is fresh off its embarrassing loss to Indiana in the Commissioner’s Cup. Washington has some off-court distractions currently, with the report that the team is shopping rising star Aaliyah Edwards on the trade market. Nonetheless, the line has moved from 14.5 to 11.5, and the total has dropped from 159.5 to 154.5, while TSI projects Minnesota -8.5 with a total of 154. Oddly, the Mystics’ rating has been 5 points higher on the road than at home, which explains the discrepancy between TSI and the market. I’m going to back Washington here on the road getting double digits.
WNBA Pick: Washington Mystics +11.5 (Play to +10)
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces (-4.5), O/U 162
Caitlin Clark has already been ruled out of this game with her ongoing groin injury, but oddly, the market has only moved from Aces -3 to Aces -4.5, and the total has only dropped from 163.5 to 162. This shocks me because normally you’d see a huge market shift with a Clark “out” announcement, so we’ll give the benefit of the doubt and say everyone knew ahead of time she wasn’t going to play. Nonetheless, the adjusted TSI projection is Aces -7 with a total of 162, so I think this is a great time to back the Aces after the Fever just won the Commissioner’s Cup and probably had a nice celebration this week while the Aces have been rounding back into form a little bit.
WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury (-12.5), O/U 166.5
Arike Ogunbowale has been ruled out for Dallas, but the line has moved from -5 to -12.5 after the news, which I don’t understand at all. Paige Bueckers was not on the injury report, and Dallas is getting some players back from international commitments. Ogunbowale is an exciting player, but I have her worth about 2 points to the spread. The adjusted TSI projection is Phoenix -11.5 with a total of 162, but with some formulas as high as 167, I’m going to pass on this game.
WNBA Pick: Pass
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