WNBA Picks

I hope everyone had a happy and safe Independence Day yesterday. There were no WNBA games scheduled yesterday, which, as someone who attended an Aces game in Vegas on the 4th of July last year (and got a selfie with Kate Martin!), I can tell you how fun that experience is. Nonetheless, we’re back with a doubleheader on Saturday featuring both teams who played in the Commissioner’s Cup championship – the Fever and the Lynx – who will be taking on the Sparks and the Valkyries, respectively. Here are today’s projections from the T Shoe Index:

 

Indiana Fever (-5.5) vs Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 163.5

Caitlin Clark is once again out for this game, as she continues to deal with a groin injury. Interestingly, this line only moved a point after the news, so bookmakers must’ve had an inkling she was going to miss again. The total has risen from 162.5 to 163.5 despite Clark being out, and TSI projects Indiana -1.5 with a total of 167. All formulas would’ve been in the 170s with Clark, but even making that adjustment has us comfortably over this number, so I’m going to reluctantly bet on the Clark-less Fever offense (or perhaps just the bad Sparks D) and take the Over.
WNBA Pickt: Over 163.5 (Play to 165)

Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 154.5

Both of these teams are coming off shellackings, with the Valkyries taking Seattle to the woodshed 84-57, and Minnesota covering as 12.5 point favorites against Washington. The Valkyries have been absolute cover machines this season, going 11-5 ATS overall, though Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as well. The spread hasn’t moved from 9.5, but the total here has dropped from 157.5 to 154.5, while TSI projects Minnesota -10 with a total of 154.5. Obviously, there are some tight lines in this game, so I’m going to pass pregame.
WNBA Pick: Pass

For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.