WNBA Picks
We’re rapidly approaching All-Star week in the WNBA, and after a trifecta of games on Sunday, we have a doubleheader Monday night. The Atlanta Dream get Rhyne Howard back from injury at home against the Golden State Valkyries, and the injury-bitten Phoenix Mercury will host the Dallas Wings and all-star rookie, Paige Bueckers. Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Atlanta Dream (-6.5) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 158.5
Golden State has been an absolute cover machine this season, going 11-6 ATS and 7-3 in their last 10 games. Atlanta, while 10-8 ATS, has been most impressive in how they’ve seen Allisha Gray transform into one of the best guards in the league, leading them to an 11-7 record. They’ll get Rhyne Howard back from injury tonight, and the market has moved a point towards them, while we’ve also seen the O/U rise to 158.5 from 157.5. TSI projects Atlanta -6.5 with a total of 157, so there’s not of value on the board for this one, though I’d lean Under because Atlanta at home has given up five fewer points on average than they do on the road, and Golden State is scoring six points fewer on the road than at home.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 158.5
Phoenix Mercury (-6) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 164.5
The big story in this game is Phoenix being without stars Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally, while Dallas will again be without bucket-getter Arike Ogunbowale. The market dropped 5.5 points towards Dallas after the injury news, and the total dropped 6 points to 164.5. TSI, accounting for injuries, projects Phoenix -3 with a total of 164.5. Dallas just beat Phoenix four days ago by nine at home as 11.5-point dogs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again. Dallas has actually been about four points better on the road than at home this season, so I’m not all that worried about the lack of home-court advantage here.
WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings +6 (Play to +5)
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