WNBA Picks
We’ve got all day basketball in the W today, with the Connecticut Sun and Seattle Storm tipping off at 11 a.m. ET, followed by the Indiana Fever and Golden State Valkyries at noon ET, Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx at 3:30 ET and Chicago Sky vs Dallas Wings at 8pm ET. No time to waste this morning, so let’s get to today’s projections:
Connecticut Sun vs Seattle Storm (-18), O/U 155.5
We know Connecticut is awful, and I half-jokingly said my men’s team Dunk Dynasty would be favored against them in a hypothetical game. They’re a barely functioning team at this point and sit at 2-16 on the year. The market has moved a half point in their direction though after opening at 18.5, and the total is down a point to 155.5 from 156.5. TSI projects Seattle -20 with a total of 156.5. I’m going to lay the big number with Seattle against this putrid team.
Bet: Storm -18 (play to -19)
Indiana Fever (-7.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 165.5
Caitlin Clark is expected back in this game for the Fever, and I’m very curious to see if her recent shooting slump was a result of her playing through injury, or if it’s actually something basketball related – opposing scheme, mechanics, etc. Upon the news of her not being on the injury report, the market moved a point towards Indiana, and the total has risen 5 points. TSI projects Indiana -3.5 with a total of 163. I’m tempted by the Under here because Golden State just has a way of slowing a game down, but I think I’m actually going to ride with the Valks against the spread here.
Bet: Valkyries +7.5 (Play to +5.5)
Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx (-7), O/U 160
Phoenix is dealing with major bad injury luck right now, as Kahleah Copper is back out of the lineup after missing the first several weeks of the season, and Satou Sabally is also dealing with an injury. These absences were expected, so we’ve only seen about 1.5 points of movement toward Minnesota, while the total has dropped 3.5 points. TSI projects Minnesota -7 with a total of 160.5, so not much meat on the bone here.
Advice: Pass
Chicago Sky (-1) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 166.5
Chicago has actually been playing competitive basketball, though it hasn’t translated to wins. Angel Reese is on a tear right now, having 5 straight games of 15+ rebounds but isn’t getting much help from her teammates to get the Sky in the win column. Dallas isn’t very good, but has shown glimpses of potential this season, but is without bucket-getter Arike Ogunbowale again tonight. The market hasn’t moved much on the spread, Chicago -1 or -1.5 pretty much everywhere, but the total has climbed about 1.5 points to 166.5. TSI projects Wings -6 with a total of 170. Dallas has had a ton of players in and out of the lineup with injuries and overseas commitments, so I’m less confident in the spread projection for this one, but I think both teams are capable of contributing to push this over the total.
Bet: Over 166.5 (Play to 167.5)
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