WNBA Picks
After a single Saturday game between the Paige Bueckers-less Dallas Wings and Angel Reese’s Chicago Sky, we’ve got a nice foursome of games Sunday, beginning with the red-hot New York Liberty and the Connecticut Sun and concluding with the Golden State Valkyries hosting the Minnesota Lynx. There are lots of injury concerns with teams playing today, so I’m going to do my best to mention those and account for them in the projections.
New York Liberty (-18.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 163.5
The defending champs remain unbeaten so far this season after a scare from Golden State the other night, but they followed that up with a dominant win against Washington on the road the next night. Connecticut is coming off a win against the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever on the road, so they should have restored at least a bit of confidence after a tough start to the season.
The market has moved in both directions, bouncing between -17 and -18.5, with the total slightly increasing from 162.5 to 163.5. TSI projects New York -15.5 with a total of 157. I’m going to lean Under here, and the only thing keeping me from making it official is the 2025 on-court-only data would make this total about 164. Note: Jonquel Jones (NY) missed the last game with an injury but has not been officially declared in or out for this game yet.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 163.5
Los Angeles Sparks (-5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 163.5
LA is off to a bumpy start without Cameron Brink, starting just 2-5 and struggling defensively at times. Phoenix has been a nice surprise, starting 4-2 despite not having Kahleah Copper in the lineup yet, and star forward Alyssa Thomas missed the last game with an injury. Her status is unclear for this game.
The market has moved from -1 to -5, which tells me she’s likely not playing. TSI would project this game Phoenix -3.5 with Thomas, but as it stands, we’ll assume she’s out again, and I’d move the line to LA -1 with a total of 149.5. The market disagrees on the total and has climbed from 160.5 to 163.5. My highest formula here is at 160 so I’m going to take the Under.
WNBA Pick: Under 163.5 (Play to (162)
Seattle Storm vs Las Vegas Aces (-3), O/U 160
Each team has three wins heading into this game, but I’d imagine the two and three losses already for Vegas and Seattle, respectively, are not what they anticipated when the season started. A’ja Wilson has been dominant, but Vegas’s defense hasn’t found its footing yet, and Seattle has just been flat out inconsistent early on. The market has moved from 2.5 to 3 and dropped the total from 163.5 to 160, while TSI projects Seattle -1.5 with a total of 166. I’ll take Seattle here at +3 or better.
WNBA Pick: Seattle +3 or better
Golden State Valkyries vs Minnesota Lynx (-11.5), O/U 158
MVP hopeful Napheesa Collier missed last game for the Lynx and is questionable today, but the market has moved towards Minnesota, which makes me wonder if she’s going to try to give it a go. Golden State is just 2-3, but has been scrappy and took New York to the wire last week. I loved the Under here when it was 164.5, but the market agreed and dropped this down to 158. TSI would project Minnesota -13 with Collier, or -6.5 if she’s out, with a total of 154. I’d still lean under here, but it’s dropped too much to make it official.
WNBA Pick: Under 158
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