WNBA Picks
Don’t look now, but after the worst possible start to the WNBA season we could imagine, all bets I’ve given out are on a 7-2 run. I’m hoping this is an indication that now that there’s plenty of on-court data, TSI is doing its thing the way it’s come through for us in other sports and historically in the WNBA. Nonetheless, I’m feeling optimistic as we head into the meat of the schedule and try to right the ship for the remainder of the season. There are two games on tap for Tuesday, including the defending champs, Angel Reese, the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever, and the expectations-surpassing Atlanta Dream.
Here are tonight’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream (-4.5), O/U 163
Caitlin Clark was potentially going to return from her quad injury in this game, but has been ruled out as of Monday night, and Sophie Cunningham is also out for the Fever. Atlanta continues to surprise me, both good and bad, as they’re 5-3 but are coming off a loss to the lowly Connecticut Sun. The market has moved the Dream from -2.5 to -4.5 and the total from 166.5 to 163. TSI projects Indiana -0.5 with a total of just 156. Atlanta and Indiana, in the home/road roles respectively this year, have averaged just 150 points per game. Also, Indiana’s road power rating is actually 2 points higher than their home rating so far this season. I like both Indiana and the Under here.
WNBA Picks: Fever +4.5 (Play to +2), Under 163 (Play to 162)
New York Liberty (-18) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 165
A bad season turned worse for Chicago over the weekend, as veteran guard and franchise all-time leading scorer, Courtney Vandersloot, tore her ACL and is out for the rest of the season. That’s terrible news for a team whose guard play was already suspect after not bringing back mercurial firecracker Chennedy Carter. On the other hand, New York has been dominant, and both the market and TSI expect a similar story tonight, as the Liberty are priced as 18-point favorites at home, with a total of 165. TSI is actually even farther apart, projecting New York -23.5 with a total of 167.5. I think New York rolls here, because as bad as Chicago has been in general, their away rating is 2 points lower than their home rating, plus I have Vandersloot worth about 1.5 points to the spread. This should be all Liberty.
WNBA Pick: Liberty -18 (Play to -20)
