WNBA Picks
Another 2-1 night last night extends the current TSI run to 9-3 over the last 12 plays. I’m certainly not going to pound my chest over it after the abysmal start to the season, but I give that stat as a reassurance that the process works. It seems like now there’s enough data that TSI has a firm grasp of the WNBA landscape. Wednesday night has a trifecta of games, but I’ll be honest, there’s a lot of conflicting data on these games, so there will be lower volume from me today.
Here are Wednesday’s projections:
Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) vs. Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 167
We faded the Sparks earlier this week against the Valkyries, but we are back on Kelsey Plum & Co. because the Aces have been overrated by the market, according to TSI, for much of this young season. This team is just 4-3 and 3-4 ATS. The market briefly moved towards Vegas, but is back to the opening 10.5, while the total has ticked up to 167.5 from 166.5. TSI projects the Aces -5.5 with a total of 166. The Sparks shot just 15% from 3 in their loss to the Valkyries, which I don’t see happening again, so I think this is a good spot to back LA.
WNBA Pick: Los Angeles Sparks +10.5 (Play to +9)
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx (-4.5), O/U 156.5
Despite some close calls, Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 this season and is at full strength from an injury standpoint after both all-stars, Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier, have missed time this season. Seattle is 5-4 and has won two straight games, and is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. No movement on the spread in this game, but the O/U has dropped from 158 to 156.5. TSI projects Minnesota -4.5 with a total of 157.5, so there’s not really an edge to be had at the current numbers.
WNBA Pick: Pass at current numbers
Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 167.5
This game got a whole lot more interesting with the news that Mercury star Alyssa Thomas and Wings rookie sensation Paige Bueckers will both return from injuries for this game after missing several games each. The market seems to love Phoenix here, pushing the Mercury from -4.5 to -7.5 after the injury news, and the total from 165.5 to 167.5. TSI is more in line with the opener, projecting Phoenix -4.5 with a total of 168.5. The reason I’m not taking the points with Dallas at 7.5 is because I do have formulas as high as Mercury -10, so when I see conflicting projections like that, it’s best to stay away. I think Wings +11 or Mercury -3 live would be my target points if you’re staying up late to watch this one.
WNBA Pick: Pass at current numbers
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