WNBA Picks
We’ve got a huge six-game slate on tap for Tuesday night in the WNBA, which is a rarity. With this type of slate comes plenty of betting opportunities, so volume will be a bit higher today than most days when there are only a few games.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s game projections from the T Shoe Index:
Indiana Fever (-18) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 164.5
Caitlin Clark returned against the Liberty on Saturday and went berserk. Her impact, by my estimation, is around nine points to the Fever’s rating, which is absurd. Clark led Indiana to hand New York its first loss this season, while Connecticut lost to the lowly Sky at the expense of Angel Reese and her first career triple-double. The Sun are downright bad. The market has been all Fever here, pushing the line from -15.5 to -18, while the total opened and remains at 164.5. TSI projects Fever -22 with a total of 168.5. I think I’d still play Indiana here, but I’m a little skittish on the Over because if it’s a blowout, Stephanie White could call off the dogs and keep this game Under the total.
WNBA Picks: Indiana Fever -18 (Play to -19)
Lean Over 164.5
New York Liberty (-8.5) vs. Atlanta Dream, O/U 163
The Liberty are coming off their first loss of the season. They take on the surging Atlanta Dream, who have started off 8-3 so far, and Allisha Gray is a legitimate MVP candidate at this juncture. The only market move we’ve seen is the total dipping from 163.5 to 163, while TSI projects Liberty -7 with a total of 161. This will likely be the only game I don’t have much of a take on.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Minnesota Lynx (-13) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 162.5
Minnesota is 10-1 and rolling right now, while the Aces had real problems even before MVP A’ja Wilson got a concussion and will miss her third straight game. Vegas is just 5-5 this season and finds themselves as double-digit dogs tonight. The line moved 4.5 points after the Wilson news, and the total dipped from 163.5 to 162.5. TSI projects Lynx -12.5 (accounting for Wilson’s absence) with a total of 161.5. Ok, I lied. At these numbers, I’m passing on this game too.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics (-4.5), O/U 156.5
Fresh off the Angel Reese triple-double and win against the Sun, Chicago will host the up-and-down Mystics, who have won just one more game than them this season (4-7). The spread has moved from 3.5 to 4.5 and the total 159.5 to 156.5, while TSI projects Mystics -8.5 with a total of 155.5. The lofty projection on Washington is mostly due to the home/road splits for these teams, but their comprehensive numbers would be more like Washington -5, so I’m going to just lean Mystics here.
WNBA Pick: Washington Mystics -4.5
Dallas Wings (-3) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 164
Paige Bueckers has returned from her concussion and has been a monster, putting up 35 points in her return. Dallas star Arike Ogunbowale was listed as questionable with an illness, but all signs point to her playing in this one. I’d adjust the line about two points if she’s out. Golden State has a few players not currently with the team, instead traveling to Europe to prepare for the Eurocup tournament. I’m guessing that’s why the line is what it is, but even accounting for those absences, TSI projects Golden State -5.5 with a total of 163.5. They’ve covered in 7/10 games (all as underdogs), so let’s ride with them again.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries +3 (Play to pick)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm (-9.5), O/U 156.5
This is one of the more interesting line moves I’ve seen this season; LA opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but with the news that Kelsey Plum is out this game, the line has shifted 11 points towards Seattle. Plum is great, but even accounting for her absence, TSI projects Seattle -8.5 with a total of 158.5. I’d love to come back on LA here (I bet Storm -3 as I saw it steaming), but LA has scored seven fewer points per game at home than on the road, even with Plum in the lineup. I liked the Under at 163.5, but it’s moved too much now. I think I’ll pass but would lean Sparks at +9.5 or better.
WNBA Pick: Lean Los Angeles Sparks +9.5
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