WNBA Picks
After a 30-point first quarter last night in the Liberty/Mercury game, I thought our Under bet was in good shape; however, both teams found their rhythm from 3 in the final three quarters and pushed it over and killed our bet. Nonetheless, we’re still on an upward trajectory overall. There are three games tonight for us to bet on, and TSI has you covered with projections for all of them.
Connecticut Sun vs. Dallas Wings (-5), O/U 164.5
Don’t look now, but the Dallas Wings are 5-point favorites over an actual professional basketball team. Paige Bueckers has been on a tear since returning from her concussion, and the Connecticut Sun are now only projected to win 6.7 games this season, per TSI. This movement has been all Wings, pushing the line from 2.5 to 5, and the total has dropped from 166.5 to 164.5. Connecticut obviously hasn’t won many games, but they’re also dreadful ATS, going just 2-4 ATS at home, while Dallas is 4-3 ATS on the road. TSI projects Dallas -9 with a total of 169.5, so I definitely like Dallas and would lean to the Over, but you just can’t trust this Sun team to contribute their fair share offensively.
WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings -5 (play to -6)
Atlanta Dream (-9) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 158
The quiet monster season Allisha Gray is having for Atlanta is unbelievable. I actually saw a graphic while watching the Liberty game last night that showed Rhyne Howard as the face of the Dream, and while she’s very good herself, Gray is clearly the catalyst pushing Atlanta well ahead of expectations this year, averaging 20/5/4. Washington has come back down to Earth a little bit, perhaps hitting a rookie wall with their young talent, but they are certainly capable of putting it together and upsetting the top teams in the league on any given night. The spread has moved from 7.5 to 9, and the total has dipped from 159.5 to 158, while TSI projects Dream -7 with a total of 150.5. I like the Under here, because believe it or not, Atlanta scores about 6.5 points per game fewer at home than on the road, and allows 15 points per game fewer defensively.
WNBA Pick: Under 158 (Play to 156)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm (-2), O/U 161
The elephant in the room here is whether or not MVP A’ja Wilson will suit up after missing the last several games for LV. Without Wilson, the Aces offense has been abysmal, scoring 8 points per game below their outputs with Wilson in the lineup, and defensively, they’ve given up about 6 points per game fewer. Of course, there’s the chance she plays, but there’s the possibility of her being limited physically, a minutes restriction, etc. I agree with the market move toward the Under here, as it’s dropped from 163.5 to 161 (the spread has gone from Seattle -3.5 to -2). At this number, it’s just a lean for me since TSI projects Storm -4.5 with a total of 160.5.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 161
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