WNBA Picks
I hate to say, “I told you so,” but man, the Indiana Fever are absolutely non-functional without Caitlin Clark in the lineup, only furthering her MVP case. I called for an outright win for the Sparks, but was met with pretty staunch resistance from my followers. However, Kelsey Plum and Co. got it done and beat Indiana outright. Looking ahead to Friday night, we’ve got a five-piece on deck, so let’s get to those projections and see where we can cash some bets.
Atlanta Dream (-1.5) vs. Minnesota Lynx, O/U 156.5
The big question here is whether Napheesa Collier plays or not. The line opened Atlanta -1.5 and has stayed put; I haven’t heard any updates regarding Collier’s status. We have seen the total tick down from 158.5 to 156.5, though. TSI projects Lynx -3 with a total of 155 assuming Collier plays, but without her, I’d swing that to Atlanta -3, so to me this line his a hedge on her status. I’ll pass for now until we have all the information.
WNBA Pick: Pass until we know about Collier
Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever (-2.5), O/U 168.5
As mentioned in the intro, Indiana was pathetic last night, giving up 35 points in a quarter to the LA Sparks. Now, they have to turn right around and travel to Dallas to take on a rested Paige Bueckers team. The line has dropped from 7.5 to 2.5, and the total has moved from 173.5 to 168.5, and there’s still no word on if Clark will play tonight. With Clark, TSI makes Indiana a 7.5 point favorite, but without, that swings all the way to Dallas -0.5, so her status is imperative to making a call on this game. The total projection, however, is 158, even with Clark, due to Indiana’s home/road splits, where their games have been about 11 points lower in scoring on the road than at home.
WNBA Pick: Under 168.5 (Play to 166.5)
Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) vs. New York Liberty, O/U 167.5
This game has already seen interesting line movement in the wake of Sabrina Ionescu’s “will she or won’t she play” theatrics we’ve seen over the last few games. After opening as a 2.5-point favorite, New York now finds themselves as 1.5-point underdogs, but the total has increased from 166.5 to 167.5. TSI projects Liberty -4 with a total of 164.5, and even if Sabrina doesn’t play, I’d only adjust the line about 3 points, so either way, NY should be favored here, barring another injury I’m unaware of (Jonquel Jones is out 4-6 weeks already).
WNBA Pick: Liberty +1.5 (Play to pick)
Seattle Storm (-19.5) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 155.5
At this point, what is Connecticut even doing? They continue to get annihilated night to night and don’t seem to show much fight, other than physically trying to fight opponents. This line opened Seattle -18 and has been bet up to 19.5, while the total has dropped from 156.5 to 155.5. TSI projects Storm -19 with a total of 158.5, but again, I can’t bet a Sun Over right now as their offense is in a freefall. Another pass on a Sun game for me.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Golden State Valkyries (-9) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 157.5
We’ve been consistently driving the Valkyries train all season, and they’ve come through for us many times, but now they’re laying 9 points against Angel Reese and a Chicago team that has at least shown lately that they haven’t quit on the season. The spread has moved from 7.5 to 9, and the total up from 156.5 to 157.5, while TSI projects Golden State -9 with a total of 160.5. I think I agree with this move and am going to play the Over. Chicago’s last five away games have averaged in the 160s, and the Over is 8-6 in Sky games overall.
WNBA Pick: Over 157.5 (Play to 158.5)
