WNBA Picks
I really don’t understand the rhyme or reason to the WNBA scheduling strategy. Yesterday, a summer Saturday, had a single WNBA game on the books, which turned out to be a dud because Paige Bueckers and half the Dallas team didn’t play (they won, nonetheless). Now, on a Sunday, you try to pack in five games, so it’s impossible to keep up with them all because the start times are all between 3-8 p.m. ET. Maybe fill your Saturdays with staggered starts and showcase your product, WNBA? Anyway, let’s get to the T Shoe Index projections for Sunday.
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty (-1), O/U 164.5
New York has been struggling by their standards since Jonquel Jones was announced out 4-6 weeks and Sabrina Ionescu has been dealing with a neck injury and has been questionable basically every game. Atlanta is 10-6 and a very capable team that can knock off a vulnerable juggernaut like New York. The line opened Liberty -4.5 but has been chiseled down to -1, while the total has dropped from 166.5 to 164.5. TSI projects New York -0.5 with a total of 167. I loved Atlanta plus the points early, but the line has moved too close to the projection, and I have mixed formulas on the total projection, so I’m going to pass on this game currently.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Los Angeles Sparks (-8) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 167.5
LA is coming off their big win against the Fever earlier in the week, while the Sky have shown some competitiveness lately despite their poor record, but it hasn’t translated into wins. This line opened LA -5.5 with a total of 169.5 before LA, and the Under took action to move it to the current lines. TSI projects Sparks -1 with a total of 166.5. LA is just 1-6 ATS at home this season and just 3-5 ATS as a favorite. I think there’s value on Chicago here.
WNBA Pick: Chicago Sky +8 (play to (+7)
Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 167
I was wrong in the preseason about how good this Phoenix team would be; they’ve been fantastic at 12-4 despite some major injuries to key players. Vegas, on the other hand, has been disappointing to say the least, but that comes with a silver lining for us because we did bet the Aces win total Under before the season, and they sit at just 7-8 right now. Phoenix opened as a 5-point favorite, so the market is seeing another Aces loss here, and the total has ticked up to 167 from 166.5. TSI projects Mercury -5 with a total of 161, it’s Under or nothing for me here.
WNBA Pick: Under 167 (Play to 166)
Minnesota Lynx (-19.5) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 154.5
In short: Minnesota = awesome. Connecticut = atrocious. The market hasn’t budged here, with Minnesota posted as a 19.5 point favorite at home and the total at 154.5, while TSI projects blowout city with a spread of 23.5 and a total of 151.5. Some formulas are even as high as Minnesota -28.5. I think this will get ugly, and Connecticut has shown virtually no signs of life over the last few weeks, so maybe find another game to watch this evening and just check your account for the -19.5 to come through for us.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -19.5 (Play to -20.5)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm (-5.5), O/U 158
No team has represented TSI more than Golden State this year; I feel like we’ve been them virtually every game because the market has continued to undervalue them, despite them having a better record than the Aces and already surpassing their season win total of 7.5. Not much action on this game so far, as the spread has remained at 5.5 while the total climbed a half point from 157.5 to 158. TSI projects Storm -5 with a total of 156, so not much room to work with here. I’d lean Valkyries and Under, but nothing official.
WNBA Picks: Golden State Valkyries +5.5, Under 158
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