WNBA Picks
The WNBA is back with a Tuesday night trifecta after a Monday night hiatus. We are starting to get deep enough into the season where there’s enough data to confidently run my various formulas, which I’ve talked about a lot if you follow my work during football or college basketball season. I like to try to “disprove” the official TSI projection, which gives me confidence to make a bet or the awareness to stay away.
Let’s take a look at the Tuesday slate and see what TSI (and accompanying formulas) have to say about these matchups:
Indiana Fever (-5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 162
Caitlin Clark is still out with a quad injury. In the two games she’s missed, the Fever have lost to the Mystics and the Sun, who just lost by 50+ this weekend. They’ve been completely discombobulated without Clark. In fact, they’ve scored eight fewer points per game and allowed six more points defensively in those two games. Washington is just 3-4, but honestly has surpassed expectations early with such a young roster. They’re fearless and scrappy and Kiki Iriafen is proving to be a future star.
This line has held steady at either 4.5 or 5, depending on the book, after some recreational books opened Indiana -3, while the total has dropped from 164 to 162. TSI, accounting for Clark’s absence, projects Washington -1 with a total of 157. Considering I’ve adjusted 8.5 points for Clark and that still hasn’t felt like enough, I’m going to fade Indiana until proven wrong.
WNBA Pick: Mystics +5, (Play to +3)
Minnesota Lynx (-11.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 158
Speaking of injuries, these teams have been as affected by injuries as anyone in the league; Minnesota DPOY Napheesa Collier missed a game or two with a knee injury. Phoenix’s two best players, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas, are both out for this game.
The market has continuously underestimated the Mercury. It has moved toward the Lynx in this game from 10.5 to 11.5 and perhaps climbing even further. TSI, though, only projects Minnesota -4.5 with a total of 154. Phoenix is 3-1 ATS as an underdog. The home/road split formula only has Minnesota -1.5. Give me the Mercury again.
WNBA Pick: Mercury +11.5 (Play to +10)
Seattle Storm (-10) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 166.5
Another injury storyline is Paige Bueckers’s concussion, which sidelined her last game and will keep her out of this one. Dallas was struggling even with Bueckers, so they can’t afford to have her out for an extended period of time. They’ll take on a Storm team that has already blown out the Aces once but is on a three-game skid.
The line is moving towards Seattle from 9.5 to 10, while the total in this game has risen from 164.5 to 166.5 at sharp books after some recreational shops opened an asinine 162.5. TSI projects Seattle -9.5 with a total of 169.5. I loved the over at 162.5 (obviously), and I’d still lean that way, with the average of my formulas being about 168.
WNBA Pick: Lean Over 166.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
