WNBA Picks
It’s a miracle, but we’ve already got lines posted at several books for both Friday’s and Saturday’s WNBA games, so I will gladly give you my projections on all of them in hopes we can grab some great numbers on these games before the markets move too much. Thursday night dealt us a heartbreaking loss with the Valkyries, who led for much of the game but somehow ended up not covering the +5.5. That’s pretty much how this season has gone so far, unfortunately. But, back in the saddle we go!
Friday
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream (-10.5), O/U 158
Connecticut is coming off the 50+ point beatdown at the hands of New York, while Atlanta sits at 5-2 and is seeing Allisha Gray become a star right before our eyes. The line is already touching 10.5 at some offshore sharper books, and the total has risen from 156.5 to 158.5. TSI agrees and projects Atlanta as 17-point winners based on the home/away splits of these teams, and indicates the total could land around 175.5, as Atlanta is 4-0 to the Over on the road so far.
WNBA Picks: Atlanta Dream -10.5 (Play to -11), Over 158 (Play to 160)
Dallas Wings vs. LA Sparks (-2), O/U 174.5
Dallas star Paige Buckers is still out while in concussion protocol, and Sparks’ forward Rickea Jackson is expected to play in this game after missing several games for personal reasons. Both of these teams badly need a win, as Dallas is just 1-7 and LA is 2-6. The line has moved from Dallas -1.5 to LA -2 after the Bueckers news broke, and the total has bounced from 172 to 171 up to 174.5. TSI projects LA -13 with a total of 175. I’m happy to see TSI on the Sparks here, because it’s been low on them so far this season, and it has cost us some bets, so I’m glad to bet on Kelsey Plum and LA for once, especially against this Paige-less Wings team.
WNBA Pick: LA Sparks -2 or better
Saturday
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces (-10.5), O/U 159.5
Coming off the tough loss to Phoenix, Golden State will host A’ja Wilson and the Aces, who have played the fewest games of any team so far this season. The Aces are favored by 10.5 with a total of 159.5, and TSI projects Vegas 8.5 with a total of 156. I do think this line will close below 10, so let’s grab some Golden State stock now.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries +10.5
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever (-4.5), O/U 168.5
This game loses quite a bit of luster because Caitlin Clark is still out with a quad injury, but I’m sure these teams don’t like each other, nonetheless. Indiana hasn’t looked good without Clark, and Chicago has been abysmal to start the season, so both teams should be hungry for a win here. We’ve seen no movement on the spread or total, and TSI also agrees with the Indiana -4.5 spread, and projects the total just a point higher. This is definitely a stay-away.
WNBA Pick: Stay Away
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm (-4.5), O/U 157
The absence of Alyssa Thomas has this line sitting at Seattle -4.5, but would be closer to a pick ‘em if she was playing. Seattle has been up-and-down already to start the year, and is just 1-3 in its last 4 games. Phoenix is coming off a wild, last-minute win over Golden State and has been playing without Thomas for an extended period. The spread has remained flat, but the total is dropping, and TSI projects Seattle -1 with a total of just 150. Worth noting, Seattle as a favorite and Phoenix as an underdog have gone 8-1-1 to the Under this season.
WNBA Pick: Under 157 (Play to 155)
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